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Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress

Author

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  • Aleksandra Król-Badziak

    (Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation—State Research Institute in Puławy, 24-100 Puławy, Poland)

  • Jerzy Kozyra

    (Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation—State Research Institute in Puławy, 24-100 Puławy, Poland)

  • Stelios Rozakis

    (Bioeconomy and Biosystems Economics Lab, School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, 73100 Chania, Greece)

Abstract

In this study, we identify the spatial distribution of water deficits in Poland. The analyses considered expert knowledge in soil categories importance in water stress evaluation influencing the climate suitability for maize production using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The Climatic Water Balance was calculated from April to September, for the baseline (BL) period (1981–2010) and two future periods of 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) using a six-member ensemble of GCM-RCM chain simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: low emissions (LE, RCP4.5) and high emissions (HE, RCP8.5). Taking into consideration water deficiency for the BL period, about 81% of Poland proved highly suitable, 18% moderately suitable and 1% marginally suitable for maize cultivation. According to LE and HE scenarios, the area of Poland that is highly suitable for maize production would decrease to 67 and 69% by the 2050s, and to 64 and 44% by the 2080s. By the 2080s, under the HE scenario, rain-fed maize production would become risky, as 21% of Poland would be marginally suitable, while 11% would not be suitable. According to our findings, supplemental irrigation is one of the effective adaptation strategies to maintain the production potential of maize in Poland.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Król-Badziak & Jerzy Kozyra & Stelios Rozakis, 2024. "Assessment of Suitability Area for Maize Production in Poland Related to the Climate Change and Water Stress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:852-:d:1322107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Renata Duffková & Jiří Holub & Petr Fučík & Jaroslav Rožnovský & Ivan Novotný, 2019. "Long-Term Water Balance of Selected Field Crops in Different Agricultural Regions of the Czech Republic Using Fao-56 and Soil Hydrological Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Forman, Ernest & Peniwati, Kirti, 1998. "Aggregating individual judgments and priorities with the analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 165-169, July.
    4. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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    1. Müge Kirmikil, 2025. "Which Factors Are More Important in Land Consolidation Block Planning? An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach for Prioritization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-12, March.
    2. Katarzyna Panasiewicz & Rafał Sobieszczański & Karolina Ratajczak & Agnieszka Faligowska & Grażyna Szymańska & Jan Bocianowski & Anna Kolanoś & Rafał Pretkowski, 2025. "Effects of Seed Fraction on Sowing Quality and Yield of Three-Line Hybrid Maize," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, April.

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