Retain in the City, Return Flow, or Blind Direction: A Study on the Differentiation Mechanism of Migrant Workers’ Migration Willingness under the Background of China’s Strategy for Integrated Urban–Rural Development

Against the backdrop of urban–rural integration development in China, the government has further strengthened its support for rural migrant workers’ urban employment and entrepreneurship, as well as their urbanization. Nevertheless, influenced by the current urban–rural development environment and public policies, a portion of rural migrant workers have evolved into two distinct groups: those with clear intentions to settle in cities or return to their hometowns and those trapped in a “neither-nor” situation, who are unable to fully integrate into urban life or seamlessly return to the countryside. This study, based on field investigations conducted in 21 cities across seven major geographical regions in China, reveals a ternary differentiation in migration intentions among rural migrant workers: “Retain in the cities”, “Return flow”, and “Blind direction”. In advancing the urban–rural integration strategy, the “clearly-oriented” groups, choosing to stay or return, can serve as dynamic forces in reconciling resources between urban and rural areas, thereby fostering closer urban–rural ties. Conversely, the “aimless wandering” group, characterized by stagnation, confusion, frequent mobility, and recurrent unemployment, poses numerous negative impacts on urban–rural interaction and coordination, hindering the in-depth integration of urban and rural areas to some extent. Drawing upon the internationally recognized Push-Pull Theory and Social Integration Theory within the field of population migration, this study conducts an empirical analysis of large-scale sample data to explore the characteristic factors and formation mechanisms underlying the “staying”, “returning”, and “blind direction” intentions, with a particular focus on the internal dynamics shaping and evolving the “aimless wandering” group. Finally, grounded in the empirical findings, this study advocates a collaborative approach between the Chinese government and various sectors of society to address the issue by promoting employment guidance, enhancing security measures, and other initiatives that encourage rural migrant workers to either stay in cities or return to their hometowns. It aims to provide policy recommendations for a definitive resolution of the rural migrant worker issue during the crucial period of urban–rural integration development.