IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i9p7082-d1130961.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projection of the Co-Reduced Emissions of CO 2 and Air Pollutants from Civil Aviation in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiurui Guo

    (Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Chunxiao Ning

    (Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Yaqian Shen

    (Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Chang Yao

    (Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Dongsheng Chen

    (Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Shuiyuan Cheng

    (Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

Abstract

Civil aviation transport is a key area of fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission, and it is also an important source of air pollutants; the emissions of these have caused severe environmental problems. In this paper, we estimated the emissions in 235 domestic civil airports, and predicted the future trends of CO 2 and air pollutant emissions from civil aviation in China until 2050 under three scenarios. The co-reduced emissions of each measure were evaluated by using the co-control effects coordinate system. The results show that in 2018, the emissions of CO 2 , NOx, SO 2 , CO, PM and HC were 117.23 × 10 6 tons, 90.47 × 10 4 tons, 14.37 × 10 4 tons, 9 × 10 4 tons, 1.29 × 10 4 tons and 0.66 × 10 4 tons, respectively. CO 2 , NOx, SO 2 and PM emissions were mainly concentrated in cruise mode, accounting for 87–93% of the total emissions; HC and CO emissions were more frequently from the LTO. Under the baseline scenario, the growth rate of air pollutant emissions will account for a greater share, from 84% in 2030 to 464% in 2050, whereas the general scenario reduces emissions by 15% and 71%, respectively, and a higher reduction of 26% and 93% is seen in the stringent scenario. Improving aviation fuels is the most significant co-reduction measure, which can reduce CO 2 by 89% and 68% in 2030 and 2050, and reduce air pollutants by 86–89% and 62–65%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiurui Guo & Chunxiao Ning & Yaqian Shen & Chang Yao & Dongsheng Chen & Shuiyuan Cheng, 2023. "Projection of the Co-Reduced Emissions of CO 2 and Air Pollutants from Civil Aviation in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7082-:d:1130961
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7082/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7082/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Geng & Sun, Shida & Zou, Chao & Wang, Bo & Wu, Lin & Mao, Hongjun, 2022. "Air pollutant emissions from on-road vehicles and their control in Inner Mongolia, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    2. Junjie Wang & Yuan Li & Yi Zhang, 2022. "Research on Carbon Emissions of Road Traffic in Chengdu City Based on a LEAP Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Tokuslu, Aydin, 2020. "Estimation of aircraft emissions at Georgian international airport," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    4. Lyu, Chen & Liu, Xiaoman & Wang, Zhen & Yang, Lu & Liu, Hao & Yang, Nan & Xu, Shaodong & Cao, Libin & Zhang, Zhe & Pang, Lingyun & Zhang, Li & Cai, Bofeng, 2023. "An emissions inventory using flight information reveals the long-term changes of aviation CO2 emissions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    5. Yu, Jinglei & Shao, Chaofeng & Xue, Chenyang & Hu, Huaqing, 2020. "China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Andreoni, V. & Galmarini, S., 2012. "European CO2 emission trends: A decomposition analysis for water and aviation transport sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 595-602.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lyu, Chen & Liu, Xiaoman & Wang, Zhen & Yang, Lu & Liu, Hao & Yang, Nan & Xu, Shaodong & Cao, Libin & Zhang, Zhe & Pang, Lingyun & Zhang, Li & Cai, Bofeng, 2023. "An emissions inventory using flight information reveals the long-term changes of aviation CO2 emissions in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    2. Kito, Minami, 2021. "Impact of aircraft lifetime change on lifecycle CO2 emissions and costs in Japan," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Cheng Li & Yangzhou Li & Jian Xing, 2023. "Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Application in Civil Aviation Carbon Emission Based on Fractional Order Accumulation and Background Value Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Cao, Feng & Tang, Tie-Qiao & Gao, Yunqi & You, Feng & Zhang, Jian, 2023. "Calculation and analysis of new taxiing methods on aircraft fuel consumption and pollutant emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    5. Reham Alhindawi & Yousef Abu Nahleh & Arun Kumar & Nirajan Shiwakoti, 2020. "Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Road Transport Sector Based on Multivariate Regression and the Double Exponential Smoothing Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Wadud, Zia, 2015. "Decomposing the drivers of aviation fuel demand using simultaneous equation models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 551-559.
    7. Liu, Xiao & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Wang, Qunwei, 2017. "What drives CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation? An exploration using a new generalized PDA method," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 30-45.
    8. Dequn Zhou & Xiao Liu & Peng Zhou & Qunwei Wang, 2017. "Decomposition Analysis of Aggregate Energy Consumption in China: An Exploration Using a New Generalized PDA Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-13, April.
    9. Robaina, Margarita & Neves, Ana, 2021. "Complete decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions intensity in the transport sector in Europe," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Chi, Hongtao & Pedrielli, Giulia & Ng, Szu Hui & Kister, Thomas & Bressan, Stéphane, 2018. "A framework for real-time monitoring of energy efficiency of marine vessels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 246-260.
    11. Tao Wang & Kai Zhang & Keliang Liu & Keke Ding & Wenwen Qin, 2023. "Spatial Heterogeneity and Scale Effects of Transportation Carbon Emission-Influencing Factors—An Empirical Analysis Based on 286 Cities in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    13. Yao Qian & Lang Sun & Quanyi Qiu & Lina Tang & Xiaoqi Shang & Chengxiu Lu, 2020. "Analysis of CO 2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Xiaoshu Cao & Shishu OuYang & Dan Liu & Wenyue Yang, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and Decomposition Analysis of CO 2 Emissions from Transportation in the Pearl River Delta," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E. & Okonkwo, Jennifer U., 2015. "Impact of industrialisation on CO2 emissions in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1228-1239.
    16. Geoffrey Udoka Nnadiri & Anthony S. F. Chiu & Jose Bienvenido Manuel Biona & Neil Stephen Lopez, 2021. "Comparison of Driving Forces to Increasing Traffic Flow and Transport Emissions in Philippine Regions: A Spatial Decomposition Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, June.
    17. Chen, Zhenni & Liu, Xi & Li, Jianglong, 2022. "Identifying channels of environmental impacts of transport sector through sectoral linkage analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    18. Li, DuoQi & Wang, DuanYi, 2016. "Decomposition analysis of energy consumption for an freeway during its operation period: A case study for Guangdong, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 296-305.
    19. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Cheng, Hao-Sen, 2021. "The impact mechanism of the ETS on CO2 emissions from the service sector: Evidence from Beijing and Shanghai," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Mingyue Chen & Chao Zhang & Chuanming Chen & Jinsheng Li & Wenyue Cui, 2023. "Main Pathways of Carbon Reduction in Cities under the Target of Carbon Peaking: A Case Study of Nanjing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7082-:d:1130961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.