IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i16p12178-d1213633.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional Carbon Stock Response to Land Use Structure Change and Multi-Scenario Prediction: A Case Study of Hunan Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Jiaji Zhu

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Xijun Hu

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Institute of Urban and Rural Landscape Ecology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Wenzhuo Xu

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Institute of Urban and Rural Landscape Ecology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Jianyu Shi

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Yihe Huang

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Institute of Urban and Rural Landscape Ecology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Bingwen Yan

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Institute of Urban and Rural Landscape Ecology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China)

Abstract

Modifications in land use patterns exert profound influences on the configuration, arrangement, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, thereby inducing fluctuations in carbon sequestration. Consequently, precise ecological decision-making and an in-depth exploration of the interplay between land use alterations and carbon storage dynamics assume paramount importance in the pursuit of optimal regional land use configurations. In this investigation, we employed the InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in land utilization and carbon storage in Hunan Province, based on comprehensive land use data spanning the period from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the PLUS model was utilized to project the future spatial distribution of carbon storage in Hunan Province until 2040, encompassing diverse development scenarios. The findings of our study are as follows: (1) Land use changes instantaneously impact carbon storage within the study area. From 2000 to 2020, urban construction land witnessed an expansion of 3542 km 2 , which accounted for an increase from 1.13% to 2.78% of the total land area. Consequently, there was a decline in arable land, woodlands, and grasslands, resulting in a reduction of 3430.25 tons of carbon storage in Hunan Province. (2) The ecological protection scenario is projected to yield the most substantial increase in carbon storage, with an estimated magnitude of 7.02 × 10⁶ tons by the year 2040. According to the natural evolution scenario, the total amount of carbon storage is anticipated to remain similar to that of 2020, with a marginal increase of 2.81 × 10⁵ tons. Under the arable land protection scenario, carbon storage is predicted to decrease by 1.060 × 10⁷ tons. Conversely, the urban development scenario is expected to result in the most substantial reduction of 2.243 × 10⁷ tons of carbon storage. These findings underscore the efficacy of adopting ecological protection and natural development policies in curbing the decline in carbon storage. (3) The geographic distribution of carbon storage areas exhibits a strong correspondence with that of land use. Regions characterized by elevated carbon storage levels exhibit minimal urban construction land, an abundance of compact and contiguous ecological land, and a higher frequency of such land parcels. To enhance regional carbon storage levels and achieve sustainable development goals, future endeavors should prioritize the implementation of ecological protection and natural development policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiaji Zhu & Xijun Hu & Wenzhuo Xu & Jianyu Shi & Yihe Huang & Bingwen Yan, 2023. "Regional Carbon Stock Response to Land Use Structure Change and Multi-Scenario Prediction: A Case Study of Hunan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:16:p:12178-:d:1213633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/16/12178/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/16/12178/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yunzhe Dai & Xiangmei Li & Dan Wang & Yayun Wang, 2022. "Impact of Accessibility to Cities at Multiple Administrative Levels on Soil Conservation: A Case Study of Hunan Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Linfeng Xu & Xuan Liu & De Tong & Zhixin Liu & Lirong Yin & Wenfeng Zheng, 2022. "Forecasting Urban Land Use Change Based on Cellular Automata and the PLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Yonghua Li & Song Yao & Hezhou Jiang & Huarong Wang & Qinchuan Ran & Xinyun Gao & Xinyi Ding & Dandong Ge, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage: An Integrated Framework Based on the MOP–PLUS–InVEST Model and an Applied Case Study in Hangzhou, East China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Zhonghe Zhao & Gaohuan Liu & Naixia Mou & Yichun Xie & Zengrang Xu & Yong Li, 2018. "Assessment of Carbon Storage and Its Influencing Factors in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuncheng Jiang & Bin Ouyang & Zhigang Yan, 2024. "The Response of Carbon Storage to Multi-Objective Land Use/Cover Spatial Optimization and Vulnerability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-27, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariusz Korzeń & Maciej Kruszyna, 2023. "Modified Ant Colony Optimization as a Means for Evaluating the Variants of the City Railway Underground Section," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Huanhuan Xiong & Xuejing Wang & Xinrui Hu, 2023. "Research on the Duality of China’s Marine Fishery Carbon Emissions and Its Coordination with Economic Development," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Harik, G. & Alameddine, I. & Zurayk, R. & El-Fadel, M., 2023. "Uncertainty in forecasting land cover land use at a watershed scale: Towards enhanced sustainable land management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    4. Ning He & Wenxian Guo & Hongxiang Wang & Long Yu & Siyuan Cheng & Lintong Huang & Xuyang Jiao & Wenxiong Chen & Haotong Zhou, 2023. "Temporal and Spatial Variations in Landscape Habitat Quality under Multiple Land-Use/Land-Cover Scenarios Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model in the Yangtze River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Rao Ma & Wendong Lv & Yao Zhao, 2022. "The Impact of TMT Experience Heterogeneity on Enterprise Innovation Quality: Empirical Analysis on Chinese Listed Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Jawed Mustafa & Fahad Awjah Almehmadi & Saeed Alqaed & Mohsen Sharifpur, 2022. "Building a Sustainable Energy Community: Design and Integrate Variable Renewable Energy Systems for Rural Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Sun, Gebing & Li, Guozhi & Dilanchiev, Azer & Kazimova, Asli, 2023. "Promotion of green financing: Role of renewable energy and energy transition in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 769-775.
    8. Xiuzhen, Xie & Zheng, Wenxiu & Umair, Muhammad, 2022. "Testing the fluctuations of oil resource price volatility: A hurdle for economic recovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Chaoyue Wang & Tingzhen Li & Xianhua Guo & Lilin Xia & Chendong Lu & Chunbo Wang, 2022. "Plus-InVEST Study of the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration’s Land-Use Change and Carbon Storage," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Saeid Varamesh & Sohrab Mohtaram Anbaran & Bagher Shirmohammadi & Nadir Al-Ansari & Saeid Shabani & Abolfazl Jaafari, 2022. "How Do Different Land Uses/Covers Contribute to Land Surface Temperature and Albedo?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Shengwang Bao & Fan Yang, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of the Land Use/Cover Change and Scenario Simulation in the Southeast Coastal Shelterbelt System Construction Project Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Cheren Cappello & Salvatore Giuffrida & Maria Rosa Trovato & Vittoria Ventura, 2022. "Environmental Identities and the Sustainable City. The Green Roof Prospect for the Ecological Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-34, September.
    13. Yangcheng Hu & Yi Liu & Changyan Li, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    14. Yafei Wang & Jinfeng Liao & Yao He & Peipei Chen, 2022. "Evolution and Ecological Implications of Land Development and Conservation Patterns on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Rong Leng & Quanzhi Yuan & Yushuang Wang & Qian Kuang & Ping Ren, 2020. "Carbon Balance of Grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Future Climate Change: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Fu, Guomin & Zhu, Sijia, 2023. "Innovation, financial risk and natural resources for sustainable development: Fresh evidence from BRICS economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Shuaijun Yue & Guangxing Ji & Weiqiang Chen & Junchang Huang & Yulong Guo & Mingyue Cheng, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Variability Characteristics of Future Carbon Stocks in Anhui Province under Different SSP Scenarios Based on PLUS and InVEST Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, August.
    18. Wen Li & Jianwei Geng & Jingling Bao & Wenxiong Lin & Zeyan Wu & Shuisheng Fan, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Evolution Patterns of Habitat Quality under Tea Plantation Expansion and Multi-Scenario Simulation Study: Anxi County as an Example," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Gang Li & Zhi Zhang & Linlu Shi & Yan Zhou & Meng Yang & Jiaxi Cao & Shuhong Wu & Guangchun Lei, 2018. "Effects of Different Grazing Intensities on Soil C, N, and P in an Alpine Meadow on the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, November.
    20. Jingheng Wang & Yecui Hu & Rong Song & Wei Wang, 2022. "Research on the Optimal Allocation of Ecological Land from the Perspective of Human Needs—Taking Hechi City, Guangxi as an Example," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-22, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:16:p:12178-:d:1213633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.