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Risk Assessment and Zonation of Roof Water Inrush Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Principle Component Analysis, and Improved Game Theory (AHP–PCA–IGT) Method

Author

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  • Baoxin Zhao

    (School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China)

  • Qimeng Liu

    (School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China)

  • Jingzhong Zhu

    (School of Resource and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China)

Abstract

With the large-scale mining of deeply buried coal seams, the risk of roof water inrush increases during mining. In order to ensure safe mining, it is necessary to predict the risk potential of water inrush from the roof aquifer. This study introduces a coupling evaluation method, including the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), principal component analysis (PCA), and improved Game theory (IGT). This paper takes the water inrush from the roof aquifer of the 11-2 coal seam in Kouzidong mine as the research object. An evaluation index system is constructed by selecting six evaluation factors, including the aquitard effective thickness, aquiclude thickness, the ratio of sandstone to mudstone, rock quality designation, fault fractal dimension, and wash water quantity of geological log. The comprehensive weighting method based on IGT is used to optimize the subjective and objective weighting values obtained by AHP and PCA methods in turn, and an AHP–PCA–IGT evaluation model is established to divide and evaluate the water inrush risk zonation of the roof aquifer. The risk degree of the water inrush gradually decreases from the center to the north–south, and the main areas with relatively high risks and higher risks are distributed in a small part of the western and eastern regions. Finally, combining various drilling data examples, drilling pumping tests, and water inrush sites, the accuracy of the predicted results is validated through the vulnerability fitting percentage (VFP). The predictions are basically consistent with the actual results, and this study lays a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of water inrush hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Baoxin Zhao & Qimeng Liu & Jingzhong Zhu, 2023. "Risk Assessment and Zonation of Roof Water Inrush Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Principle Component Analysis, and Improved Game Theory (AHP–PCA–IGT) Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:14:p:11375-:d:1199637
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Wen Zhai & Wei Li & Yanli Huang & Shenyang Ouyang & Kun Ma & Junmeng Li & Huadong Gao & Peng Zhang, 2020. "A Case Study of the Water Abundance Evaluation of Roof Aquifer Based on the Development Height of Water-Conducting Fracture Zone," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Zhenming Sun & Wenpeng Bao & Mei Li, 2022. "Comprehensive Water Inrush Risk Assessment Method for Coal Seam Roof," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
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