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Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in the GBA Based on PLUS–InVEST Models

Author

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  • Ruei-Yuan Wang

    (Department of Geographical Science, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology (GDUPT), Maoming 525000, China)

  • Huina Cai

    (Department of Geographical Science, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology (GDUPT), Maoming 525000, China)

  • Lingkang Chen

    (Department of Geographical Science, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology (GDUPT), Maoming 525000, China)

  • Taohui Li

    (Key Laboratory of Plateau Geographic Processes and Environment Change of Yunnan Province, Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
    Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China)

Abstract

In the context of sustainable development and dual-carbon construction, in order to clarify the future changes in land use and carbon storage in the GBA, this study used the PLUS and InVEST models as well as Geoda software to simulate and predict the spatial development pattern of land use as well as the changes in carbon stocks in the GBA in 2030 under multiple scenarios. The results show that (1) From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage decreased year by year. (2) In 2030, except for the EPS, the future carbon storage prediction values of the remaining scenarios are lower than those in 2020, especially the carbon storage prediction value under the EDS, which is the lowest at 8.65 × 10 8 t. (3) The spatial distribution of carbon storage in the GBA has significant spatial heterogeneity. The high-value areas of carbon storage are distributed in the east and west wings as well as southwest of the GBA, while the low-value areas are concentrated in the middle and east. The research results can provide a reasonable scientific basis for the territorial space resource planning of the GBA under the goal of “dual carbon”.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruei-Yuan Wang & Huina Cai & Lingkang Chen & Taohui Li, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in the GBA Based on PLUS–InVEST Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:10:p:8421-:d:1152952
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    References listed on IDEAS

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