Spatiotemporal Patterns of Vegetation Coverage and Its Response to Land-Use Change in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Inner Mongolia, China

In agro-pastoral transitional zones, monitoring vegetation fraction coverage (FVC) and understanding its relationship with land use and climate change are crucial for comprehending how complex land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) improves ecological restoration and land management. This study focuses on the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Inner Mongolia, aiming to analyze vegetation cover changes from 2000 to 2020 using the Mann–Kendall (MK) significance test, Theil–Sen median trend analysis, and coefficient of variation (CV) analysis. Additionally, the study explores the impacts of LUCC, precipitation, and temperature on vegetation cover using methods such as geo-detector, pixel-based statistical analysis, and univariate linear regression. Based on the PLUS land-use prediction model and linear regression results, vegetation cover was simulated under different land-use scenarios for the future. The main findings are as follows: first, from 2000 to 2020, the spatial distribution of vegetation cover in the study area showed a distinct pattern of higher vegetation cover in the east compared to the west, with significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Although the overall vegetation cover slightly increased, there were notable differences in the trend across regions, with some areas experiencing a decrease in FVC. Second, LUCC is the most significant explanatory factor for vegetation cover changes, and the interactions between LUCC and other factors have a particularly notable impact on vegetation cover. Third, scenario simulations based on the PLUS model indicate that, by 2040, vegetation cover will perform optimally under the farmland protection and sustainable development scenarios. Particularly under the farmland protection scenario, the conversion of cropland, forestland, and grassland is notably suppressed. In contrast, the unmanaged natural development scenario will lead to a decline in vegetation cover. The results of this study show that vegetation cover in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Inner Mongolia exhibits substantial fluctuations due to land-use change. Future ecological restoration policies should incorporate land-use optimization to promote vegetation recovery and address ecological degradation.