Does Sustainable Development in Resource-Based Cities Effectively Reduce Carbon Emissions? An Empirical Study Based on Annual Panel Data from 59 Prefecture-Level Cities in China

This study presents an analysis of the impact of the National Plan for the Sustainable Development of Resource-based Cities (2013–2020) on urban carbon emissions and explores the underlying mechanisms of this policy’s effect. Panel data from 59 prefecture-level cities in the Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and Hubei provinces in China for the period between 2007 and 2019 were used to perform a DID (difference-in-differences) method analysis and conduct various robustness tests, including counterfactual testing, a PSM-DID (propensity score matching-difference-in-differences) method analysis, and a placebo test. The findings demonstrate that The Plan effectively reduces urban carbon emissions, with its effects varying across provinces and classes of resource-based cities. Specifically, Henan Province shows the most significant effect in reducing carbon emissions compared to the other three provinces. The Plan is more successful in regenerative and recessionary resource-based cities than in mature ones. Furthermore, it reduces carbon emissions by decreasing cities’ dependence on resources, improving citizens’ quality of life, and limiting the pace of industrial development. This article provides important policy implications for promoting the sustainable development of China’s resource-based cities and achieving carbon emission reduction goals amidst the carbon peak and carbon neutrality contexts.