IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i7p4252-d786303.html

Assessment of Future Drought Index Using SSP Scenario in Rep. of Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Songhee An

    (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Incheon National University, Academy-ro 119, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon 22012, Korea)

  • Guetae Park

    (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Incheon National University, Academy-ro 119, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon 22012, Korea)

  • Hanna Jung

    (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Incheon National University, Academy-ro 119, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon 22012, Korea)

  • Dongwoo Jang

    (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Incheon National University, Academy-ro 119, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon 22012, Korea)

Abstract

Drought is a meteorological disaster that has serious economic and environmental impacts. Therefore, for drought assessment, it is important to not only analyze the current state of drought using observed data but also future droughts by considering climate change. Although shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been developed, studies regarding their application in drought analysis in Korea are insufficient. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) for future droughts in Korea were calculated and analyzed using climate data based on SSP scenarios. The precipitation and temperature data from SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. In both scenarios, temperature and precipitation increased toward the long-term future, with the increase being more in the SSP5-8.5 scenario than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Using these data, the number of drought occurrences was found to be smaller, and the two drought indices were found to be lower in SSP5-8.5 scenario than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, implying that more severe droughts may occur in the former than in the latter. In addition, in SSP1-2.6 scenarios, both SPI and RDI increased toward the long-term future, while in SSP5-8.5 scenario, SPI increased, and RDI decreased toward the long-term future.

Suggested Citation

  • Songhee An & Guetae Park & Hanna Jung & Dongwoo Jang, 2022. "Assessment of Future Drought Index Using SSP Scenario in Rep. of Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:7:p:4252-:d:786303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/7/4252/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/7/4252/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    2. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomoya Mori & Daisuke Murakami, 2025. "Sustainability of cities under declining population and decreasing distance frictions: The case of Japan," KIER Working Papers 1117, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    3. Komarek, Adam M. & Robinson, Sherman & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, 2018. "The diet problem, nutrient supply, and the cost of diversity applied to livestock feeds," IFPRI discussion papers 1780, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Tesfalem Abraham & Yan Liu & Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Andreas Hartmann, 2026. "Meteorological to Hydrological Drought Propagation: the Role of Catchment Properties in Contrasting Climatic Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 40(2), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Marco Grasso & J. David Tàbara, 2019. "Towards a Moral Compass to Guide Sustainability Transformations in a High-End Climate Change World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    6. Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Abolfazl Mosaedi, 2018. "Assessing a Multivariate Approach Based on Scalogram Analysis for Agricultural Drought Monitoring," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3423-3440, August.
    7. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    8. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    9. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Ahmad Abu Arra & Eyüp Şişman, 2024. "Innovative Drought Classification Matrix and Acceptable Time Period for Temporal Drought Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2811-2833, June.
    11. Ludwig Weh, 2025. "A Participatory Scenario Framework Advances Ecosystem Scenarios as Environmental Futures Approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), August.
    12. Trutnevyte, Evelina & McDowall, Will & Tomei, Julia & Keppo, Ilkka, 2016. "Energy scenario choices: Insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 326-337.
    13. Matteo Fontana & Massimo Tavoni & Simone Vantini, 2020. "Global Sensitivity and Domain-Selective Testing for Functional-Valued Responses: An Application to Climate Economy Models," Papers 2006.13850, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    14. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2025. "Spatial and temporal assessment and forecasting vulnerability to meteorological drought," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(11), pages 26375-26398, November.
    15. Coppens, Léo & Venmans, Frank, 2025. "The welfare properties of climate targets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. De Cian, Enrica & Wing, Ian Sue, "undated". "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 232222, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    17. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    18. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    19. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    20. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:7:p:4252-:d:786303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.