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The COVID-19 Pandemic and Nature-Based Tourism, Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study of Nature-Based Tourism in Iran)

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  • Hossein Komasi

    (School of Engineering, Catholic University of the North, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile)

  • Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani

    (School of Engineering, Catholic University of the North, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile)

  • Fausto Cavallaro

    (Department of Economics, University of Molise, 86100 Campobasso, Italy)

Abstract

The development of nature-based tourism is one of the most critical sectors of tourism, which is influenced by various economic, socio-cultural, and environmental factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced all sectors of tourism, including nature-based tourism. The purpose of this article is to identify the key drivers affecting the development of nature-based tourism and analyze future scenarios of nature-based tourism in Iran based on the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Micmac and ScenarioWizard software programs were used to analyze the research findings. Many factors affect the development of nature-based tourism in Iran, which fall into two human and natural factors groups. Five factors are the key drivers influencing the development of nature-based tourism in Iran: national, regional and globaly safety (F2); economic stability (F8); private sector participation (F9), human crises such as diseases, wars, etc. (F16); national and international advertising (national and international (F17); and travel costs (F19). According to the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, the research results show that a total of 10 scenarios for the future of nature-based tourism in Iran are conceivable, which are presented in three groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Komasi & Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Fausto Cavallaro, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Nature-Based Tourism, Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study of Nature-Based Tourism in Iran)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:7:p:3954-:d:780770
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    1. Torabi, Zabih-Allah & Rezvani, Mohammad Reza & Hall, C. Michael & Allam, Zaheer, 2023. "On the post-pandemic travel boom: How capacity building and smart tourism technologies in rural areas can help - evidence from Iran," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

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