Staged Transition Process from Driving to Bicycling Based on the Effects of Latent Variables

With the worsening of urban traffic congestion and environmental pollution, cities around the world have become conscious of the importance of the bicycle. The key to promoting the transition from driving to bicycling for short-distance travel is to understand the transition process and the effect of latent variables. This paper divides the transition from driving to bicycling into five stages according to the transtheoretical model of behavior change and analyzes the staged transition process in terms of influences from latent variables. First, based on survey data from ten communities in Beijing, China, a multiple-indicator and multiple-cause (MIMIC) model of transition intention was developed, and then the influential relationships were analyzed between latent variables such as riding attitude and the causal relationships between latent variables and exogenous variables such as infrastructure characteristics. Subsequently, four transition behavior hybrid-choice models for different stages were developed to describe the phased transition process. Finally, the key influencing factors in different stages were identified. The findings reveal the mechanism of the transition from driving to bicycling, which can support policy makers’ decisions at the level of bicycle travel promotion, guidance and facility planning.