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Based on ISM—NK Tunnel Fire Multi-Factor Coupling Evolution Game Research

Author

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  • Jie Liu

    (Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)

  • Guanding Yang

    (Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)

  • Wanqing Wang

    (School of Finance, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Longquan Road, Kunming 650221, China)

  • Haowen Zhou

    (Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)

  • Xinyue Hu

    (Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)

  • Qian Ma

    (Faculty of Public Security and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)

Abstract

A tunnel is a complex network system with multiple risk factors interacting. At present, the cause analysis of tunnel fire accidents focuses on exploring risk sources and risk assessment, ignoring the interaction between risk factors. A single model has certain limitations. By proposing the concept of the multi-factor coupled evolutionary game of tunnel fire, integrating the natural killing model (NK) and the explanatory structure model (ISM), the evolutionary game of multi-factor coupling of tunnel fire is studied from the perspective of micro and macro analysis, qualitative and quantitative research, the coupling relationship and effect between risk factors are discussed, 100 tunnel fire accidents and 158 tunnel fire literature at home and abroad are analyzed, and 40 typical tunnel fire risk factors and 31 coupling types of fire cause factors are extracted. Using the combined ISM-NK model, a seven-level network model of tunnel fire accident risk coupling is constructed, and the degree of coupling of various types of risk factors is evaluated. The hierarchical network cascade model revealed that 4 of the 40 typical tunnel fire risk factors were the underlying risk factors, 23 shallow layers were the risk factors and direct influencing factors, and 13 were the middle-risk factors and indirect influencing factors. The NK model shows that with the increase of coupling nodes, the frequency of tunnel fire accidents also shows an upward trend, and the subjective risk factor coupled with tunnel fires have a higher frequency than the objective risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Liu & Guanding Yang & Wanqing Wang & Haowen Zhou & Xinyue Hu & Qian Ma, 2022. "Based on ISM—NK Tunnel Fire Multi-Factor Coupling Evolution Game Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:12:p:7034-:d:834197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "An Analysis of Default Correlations and Multiple Defaults," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 555-576.
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    1. Chang Su & Jiayi Ma & Caiping Wang & Jun Deng & Weile Chen, 2025. "Flood-induced coal mine disaster chain evolution and risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(18), pages 21031-21058, November.

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