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PLUS-Model Based Multi-Scenario Land Space Simulation of the Lower Yellow River Region and Its Ecological Effects

Author

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  • Chang Lu

    (School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

  • Xiao Qi

    (School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

  • Zhongsen Zheng

    (School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

  • Kun Jia

    (School of Management Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

Abstract

The rapid urbanization in recent years as a vehicle for social growth and ecological construction has resulted in a significant transformation of the spatial structure of the land in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. Based on this, the current study used the PLUS model to simulate the future territorial spatial pattern of the lower reaches of the Yellow River in various development scenarios to reveal differences in the ecosystem’s spatial distribution and provide a reference for optimizing territorial spatial usage and ecological protection. The results show that the overall accuracy of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model’s simulation results was 0.748, the Kappa coefficient was 0.812, and the simulation effect was good. The simulation results for each land space in various situations reveal a preferential spatial development trend model. In the territorial and spatial priority scenario, development was reasonably balanced, which is consistent with the status of the quantitative structure of the territorial space of the study area during 2015. From 2015 to 2035, the value of ecosystem services will change in different ways depending on the scenario and the set priorities. The ecosystem service value decreased in the production space and living space priority development scenarios, while it increased in the ecological space and national space priority development scenarios. The PLUS model has a high degree of applicability to the spatial pattern development simulation of the lower Yellow River region, and the results of this multi-scenario simulation and ecological environmental effect study may be used as a reference for future territorial spatial planning and policy formulation in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang Lu & Xiao Qi & Zhongsen Zheng & Kun Jia, 2022. "PLUS-Model Based Multi-Scenario Land Space Simulation of the Lower Yellow River Region and Its Ecological Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:11:p:6942-:d:832811
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yu Fu & Qian Li & Julin Li & Kun Zeng & Liangsong Wang & Youhan Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Production-Living-Ecological Spaces in Sichuan Province Based on the PLUS Model and Assessment of Its Ecological and Environmental Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Hongwei Zhang & Qiang Bie & Ying Shi & Xinru Deng & Xinzhang Li, 2025. "Analysis of Sustained Growth Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Central Asia Under Multi-Scenario Simulation," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Ahmed Marey & Liangzhu (Leon) Wang & Sherif Goubran & Abhishek Gaur & Henry Lu & Sylvie Leroyer & Stephane Belair, 2024. "Forecasting Urban Land Use Dynamics Through Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation and Markov Chain Integration: A Multi-Scenario Predictive Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Shengyue Zhang & Yanjun Zhang & Xiaomeng Wang & Yuefen Li, 2025. "Land Use Conflict Under Different Scenarios Based on the PLUS Model: A Case Study of the Development Pilot Zone in Jilin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-37, August.

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