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Analysis of Sustained Growth Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Central Asia Under Multi-Scenario Simulation

Author

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  • Hongwei Zhang

    (Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Qiang Bie

    (Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Ying Shi

    (Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Xinru Deng

    (Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Xinzhang Li

    (Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract

As a pivotal area in the context of global climate change, central Asia exerts a crucial influence on tackling climate change and preserving regional ecological equilibrium via the carbon sink capacity of its ecosystem. In this study, the patch-level land use simulation model was employed to predict land use changes in central Asia under three different scenarios: agricultural priority, urbanized priority, and ecological priority. Subsequently, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs evaluation model is utilized to analyze variations in ecosystem carbon storage for each scenario. Finally, the multiscale geographic weighted regression model is used to identify the main driving factors influencing carbon storage changes. The findings indicate the following: (1) In the ecological priority scenario, a balance is struck between urban expansion and resource environment protection within ecological spaces. Conversely, in the urbanized priority and agricultural priority scenarios, ecological spaces experience a reduction. (2) The simulation results of carbon storage in 2060 under different scenarios suggest that the ecological priority scenario will see the largest increase in carbon storage, amounting to 1.076 × 10⁸ t. (3) The digital elevation model, precipitation, slope gradient, and temperature contribute relatively more significantly to the carbon storage in central Asia. The findings emphasize the necessity of enhancing carbon storage through ecological space protection and rational land use management, providing scientific evidence for the formulation of regional carbon management and ecological protection policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongwei Zhang & Qiang Bie & Ying Shi & Xinru Deng & Xinzhang Li, 2025. "Analysis of Sustained Growth Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Central Asia Under Multi-Scenario Simulation," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:848-:d:1633817
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei Guo & Yongjia Teng & Yueguan Yan & Chuanwu Zhao & Wanqiu Zhang & Xianglin Ji, 2022. "Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Ruiwen Zhang & Chengyi Zhao & Xiaofei Ma & Karthikeyan Brindha & Qifei Han & Chaofan Li & Xiaoning Zhao, 2019. "Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Yuansheng Huang & Zhaobei Li & Mengshu Shi, 2024. "Prediction of plant carbon sink potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 3529-3556, February.
    4. Chang Lu & Xiao Qi & Zhongsen Zheng & Kun Jia, 2022. "PLUS-Model Based Multi-Scenario Land Space Simulation of the Lower Yellow River Region and Its Ecological Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
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