IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i20p13436-d945925.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Guo

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yongjia Teng

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Yueguan Yan

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Chuanwu Zhao

    (Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Wanqiu Zhang

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Xianglin Ji

    (College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

In considering regional sustainable development, optimizing the distribution of land use and land cover (LULC) and improving terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) have emerged as major concerns. In this study, considering the synergistic effect between LULC and CS, a coupling model (named MPI) that integrates Multi-objective Optimization (MOP) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, was proposed to simulate the 2030 CS and explore its spatial-temporal characteristics in a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH). The MPI model, which combines the advantages of the above three models, can optimize the LULC structure, simulate the LULC distribution, and efficiently extract CS variation. The results indicated that: (1) LULC changes in BTH were mostly represented in transfers between cropland, forest, and grassland; (2) three different scenarios were simulated using the MPI model, named BAU (Business as usual), EDP (Ecological development priority), and EEB (Ecological and economic balanced). The simulation results of the three scenarios are in line with their respective goals, and the results are quite different; (3) cropland, water, and bare land, will be reduced, and the constant shrinking of water is a pressing issue that must be addressed; and (4) the EEB scenario balanced ecological services and economic rewards, increased the ecosystem carbon sink function, and is an efficient way to investigate “carbon neutrality”. The application of the MPI model is of reference value for exploring the optimal configuration of land resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Guo & Yongjia Teng & Yueguan Yan & Chuanwu Zhao & Wanqiu Zhang & Xianglin Ji, 2022. "Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:20:p:13436-:d:945925
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/20/13436/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/20/13436/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7830), pages 482-483, October.
    2. González-García, Alberto & Palomo, Ignacio & González, José A. & López, César A. & Montes, Carlos, 2020. "Quantifying spatial supply-demand mismatches in ecosystem services provides insights for land-use planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Jinjin Wu & Xueru Jin & Zhe Feng & Tianqian Chen & Chenxu Wang & Dingrao Feng & Jiaqi Lv, 2021. "Relationship of Ecosystem Services in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on the Production Possibility Frontier," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Aibin Wu & Jianwen Zhang & Yanxia Zhao & Huitao Shen & Xiaoping Guo, 2022. "Simulation and Optimization of Supply and Demand Pattern of Multiobjective Ecosystem Services—A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Daowei Zhang & Anne Stenger, 2015. "Value and valuation of forest ecosystem services," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 129-140, July.
    7. Chen Jun & Yifang Ban & Songnian Li, 2014. "Open access to Earth land-cover map," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7523), pages 434-434, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kuiyuan Xu & Ruhan Li & Mengnan Liu & Yajie Cao & Jinwen Yang & Yali Wei, 2025. "Analysis of Carbon Storage Changes in the Chengdu–Chongqing Region Based on the PLUS-InVEST-MGWR Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-27, August.
    2. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Hanlong Gu & Shuoxin Liu & Chongyang Huan & Ming Cheng & Xiuru Dong & Haohang Sun, 2025. "Multi-Objective Land Use Optimization Based on NSGA-II and PLUS Models: Balancing Economic Development and Carbon Neutrality Goals," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Hongwei Zhang & Qiang Bie & Ying Shi & Xinru Deng & Xinzhang Li, 2025. "Analysis of Sustained Growth Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Central Asia Under Multi-Scenario Simulation," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Fanmin Liu & Xianchao Zhao & Mengjie Wang, 2025. "Spatial Network Heterogeneity of Land Use Carbon Emissions and Ecosystem Services in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-29, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xuemao Zhang & Binggeng Xie & Junhan Li & Chuan Yuan, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Distribution and Driving Force Analysis of the Ecosystem Service Value in the Fujiang River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Xuebin Zhang & Litang Yao & Jun Luo & Wenjuan Liang, 2022. "Exploring Changes in Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk in Key Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative Countries," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Lu Jiao & Rui Yang & Yinling Zhang & Jian Yin & Jiayu Huang, 2022. "The Evolution and Determinants of Ecosystem Services in Guizhou—A Typical Karst Mountainous Area in Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Zhenjun Yan & Yirong Wang & Xu Hu & Wen Luo, 2023. "Assessment and Enhancement of Ecosystem Service Supply Efficiency Based on Production Possibility Frontier: A Case Study of the Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Qian Zhou & Feng Gui & Benxuan Zhao & Jingyi Liu & Huiwen Cai & Kaida Xu & Sheng Zhao, 2024. "Examining the Social Costs of Carbon Emissions and the Ecosystem Service Value in Island Ecosystems: An Analysis of the Zhoushan Archipelago," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Ning Xiang & Limao Wang & Shuai Zhong & Chen Zheng & Bo Wang & Qiushi Qu, 2021. "How Does the World View China’s Carbon Policy? A Sentiment Analysis on Twitter Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Idiano D'Adamo & Massimo Gastaldi & Ilhan Ozturk, 2023. "The sustainable development of mobility in the green transition: Renewable energy, local industrial chain, and battery recycling," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 840-852, April.
    8. Zhang, Zhonglian & Yang, Xiaohui & Li, Moxuan & Deng, Fuwei & Xiao, Riying & Mei, Linghao & Hu, Zecheng, 2023. "Optimal configuration of improved dynamic carbon neutral energy systems based on hybrid energy storage and market incentives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    9. Feng, Jiayu & Gao, Jintong & Hu, Bin & Wang, Ruzhu & Xu, Zhenyuan, 2024. "A mass-coupled hybrid absorption-compression heat pump with output temperature of 200 °C," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    10. Xiji Jiang & Jiaxin Sun & Tianzi Zhang & Qian Li & Yan Ma & Wen Qu & Dan Ye & Zhendong Lei, 2025. "Defining Rural Types Nearby Large Cities from the Perspective of Urban–Rural Integration: A Case Study of Xi’an Metropolitan Area, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    11. Jingyi Wang & Chen Weng & Zhen Wang & Chunming Li & Tingting Wang, 2022. "What Constitutes the High-Quality Soundscape in Human Habitats? Utilizing a Random Forest Model to Explore Soundscape and Its Geospatial Factors Behind," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-23, October.
    12. Huangling Gu & Yan Liu & Hao Xia & Zilong Li & Liyuan Huang & Yanjia Zeng, 2023. "Temporal and Spatial Differences in CO 2 Equivalent Emissions and Carbon Compensation Caused by Land Use Changes and Industrial Development in Hunan Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Qing Yang & Zhanqiang Chang & Chou Xie & Chaoyong Shen & Bangsen Tian & Haoran Fang & Yihong Guo & Yu Zhu & Daoqin Zhou & Xin Yao & Guanwen Chen & Tao Xie, 2023. "Combining Soil Moisture and MT-InSAR Data to Evaluate Regional Landslide Susceptibility in Weining, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-34, July.
    14. Wei-Ling Hsu & Zhicheng Zhuang & Cheng Li & Jie Zhao, 2025. "Optimization of Land Use Patterns in a Typical Coal Resource-Based City Based on the Ecosystem Service Relationships of ‘Food–Carbon–Recreation’," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, March.
    15. Fangfang Xun & Yecui Hu & Ling Lv & Jinhui Tong, 2017. "Farmers’ Awareness of Ecosystem Services and the Associated Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-13, September.
    16. Lili Zhang & Baoqing Hu & Ze Zhang & Gaodou Liang & Simin Huang, 2023. "Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological-Economic Value of Guangxi Based on Land Consolidation," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-25, March.
    17. Xinmin Zhang & Hualin Xie & Jiaying Shi & Tiangui Lv & Caihua Zhou & Wangda Liu, 2020. "Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in Response to Land Cover Dynamics in Jiangxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-15, April.
    18. Kuang, Yunming & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Performance of tiered pricing policy for residential natural gas in China: Does the income effect matter?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    19. Wu, Guoyong & Gao, Yue & Feng, Yanchao, 2023. "Assessing the environmental effects of the supporting policies for mineral resource-exhausted cities in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    20. Gang Lin & Dong Jiang & Xiang Li & Jingying Fu, 2022. "Accounting for Carbon Sink and Its Dominant Influencing Factors in Chinese Ecological Space," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:20:p:13436-:d:945925. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.