IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i15p7161-d1719777.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land Use Conflict Under Different Scenarios Based on the PLUS Model: A Case Study of the Development Pilot Zone in Jilin, China

Author

Listed:
  • Shengyue Zhang

    (College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China)

  • Yanjun Zhang

    (College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China)

  • Xiaomeng Wang

    (College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China)

  • Yuefen Li

    (College of Earth Science, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China)

Abstract

In rapidly urbanizing regions, escalating land use conflicts have raised concerns over sustainable development and ecological security. This study focuses on the Chang-Ji-Tu Development and Opening Pilot Zone in Jilin Province, aiming to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of land use conflicts and identify their driving factors, based on land use data from 2000 to 2023. The study employs land use data, the PLUS model, SCCI, and the geographic detector to analyze conflict dynamics and influencing factors. Cropland and forest land have steadily declined, while construction land has expanded. Conflicts exhibit a spatial gradient of “western pressure, central alleviation, and eastern stability,” with hotspots in Changchun, Jilin, and Yanji. Conflict evolution is categorized into three phases: intensification (2000–2010), peak (2010–2015), and mitigation (2015–2023), as shaped by industrialization and later policy interventions. Among four simulated scenarios, the Sustainable Development (SD) scenario most effectively postpones conflict escalation. Population density and DEM emerged as dominant driving factors. Natural factors have greater explanatory power for land use conflicts than do socio-economic or locational factors. Strengthening spatial planning coordination and refining conflict governance are key to balancing human–environment interactions in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengyue Zhang & Yanjun Zhang & Xiaomeng Wang & Yuefen Li, 2025. "Land Use Conflict Under Different Scenarios Based on the PLUS Model: A Case Study of the Development Pilot Zone in Jilin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-37, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:7161-:d:1719777
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/7161/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/7161/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xupu Li & Shuangshuang Li & Yufeng Zhang & Patrick J. O’Connor & Liwei Zhang & Junping Yan, 2021. "Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment under Multiple Indicators," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Guojian Wang & Jianguo Wang & Lingzhi Wang & Yi Zhang & Wenxuan Zhang, 2024. "Land-Use Conflict Dynamics, Patterns, and Drivers under Rapid Urbanization," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Man Li, 2019. "The effect of land use regulations on farmland protection and non‐agricultural land conversions in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(3), pages 643-667, July.
    4. Yu, Junqing & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin, 2019. "Land use efficiency and influencing factors of urban agglomerations in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Maomao Zhang & Abdulla-Al Kafy & Bing Ren & Yanwei Zhang & Shukui Tan & Jianxing Li, 2022. "Application of the Optimal Parameter Geographic Detector Model in the Identification of Influencing Factors of Ecological Quality in Guangzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Yongwei Liu & Xiaoshu Cao & Tao Li, 2020. "Identifying Driving Forces of Built-Up Land Expansion Based on the Geographical Detector: A Case Study of Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Yaqi Cheng & Wei Song & Hao Yu & Xi Wei & Shuangqing Sheng & Bo Liu & He Gao & Junfang Li & Congjie Cao & Dazhi Yang, 2023. "Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.
    8. He Gao & Wei Song, 2022. "Assessing the Landscape Ecological Risks of Land-Use Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-25, October.
    9. Duveiller, Gregory & Caporaso, Luca & Abad-Viñas, Raul & Perugini, Lucia & Grassi, Giacomo & Arneth, Almut & Cescatti, Alessandro, 2020. "Local biophysical effects of land use and land cover change: towards an assessment tool for policy makers," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Xiaomeng Wang & Yanjun Zhang & Xiaoyan Li & Shuwen Cao, 2025. "An Analysis of Land Use Conflicts and Strategies in the Harbin–Changchun Urban Agglomeration Based on the Production–Ecological–Living Space Theory and Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-35, January.
    11. Chang Lu & Xiao Qi & Zhongsen Zheng & Kun Jia, 2022. "PLUS-Model Based Multi-Scenario Land Space Simulation of the Lower Yellow River Region and Its Ecological Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Jiao Chen & Liwei Zhang & Shan Zhao & Hua Zong, 2023. "Assessing Land-Use Conflict Potential and Its Correlation with LULC Based on the Perspective of Multi-Functionality and Landscape Complexity: The Case of Chengdu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao Xiong & Yueling Li & Yunfeng Yang, 2025. "Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Peri-Urban Villages in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Ecosystem Service Values," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Qiang Liu & Yifei Li, 2025. "Examining the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use Conflicts from an Ecological Security Perspective: A Case Study of Tianshui City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Lei Zhao & Zhengtao Shi & Guangxiong He & Li He & Wenfei Xi & Qin Jiang, 2023. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Terrain Gradients in Yuanmou Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Zhang, Pengyan & Yang, Dan & Qin, Mingzhou & Jing, Wenlong, 2020. "Spatial heterogeneity analysis and driving forces exploring of built-up land development intensity in Chinese prefecture-level cities and implications for future Urban Land intensive use," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. Zhaoxue Gai & Ying Xu & Guoming Du, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Differentiation and Driving Factors of Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land-Use Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Hengrui Zhang & Jianing Zhang & Zhuozhuo Lv & Linjie Yao & Ning Zhang & Qing Zhang, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Landscape Ecological Risk and Associated Drivers: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin in Inner Mongolia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Han, Bo & Jin, Xiaobin & Sun, Rui & Li, Hanbing & Liang, Xinyuan & Zhou, Yinkang, 2023. "Understanding land-use sustainability with a systematical framework: An evaluation case of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Hanguang Yu & Dongya Liu & Chunxiao Zhang & Le Yu & Ben Yang & Shijiao Qiao & Xiaoli Wang, 2023. "Research on Spatial–Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Development Intensity for Pearl River Delta Region Based on Geodetector," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, August.
    9. Yuqi Zhu & Siwei Shen & Linyu Du & Jun Fu & Jian Zou & Lina Peng & Rui Ding, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Interaction Coupling of Digital Economy, New-Type Urbanization and Land Ecology and Spatial Effects Identification: A Study of the Yangtze River Delta," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-27, March.
    10. Yaqi Cheng & Xuyang Zhang & Wei Song, 2024. "Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Aibin Wu & Yanxia Zhao & Yanjie Qin & Xin Liu & Huitao Shen, 2023. "Analysis of Ecological Environment Quality and Its Driving Factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Lisha Pan & Hangang Hu & Xin Jing & Yang Chen & Guan Li & Zhongguo Xu & Yuefei Zhuo & Xueqi Wang, 2022. "The Impacts of Regional Cooperation on Urban Land-Use Efficiency: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Adedayo Johnson Ogungbile & Geoffrey Qiping Shen & Ibrahim Yahaya Wuni & Jin Xue & Jingke Hong, 2021. "A Hybrid Framework for Direct CO 2 Emissions Quantification in China’s Construction Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-22, November.
    14. Juliana Freitas Santos & Udo Schickhoff & Shabeh ul Hasson & Jürgen Böhner, 2023. "Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-25, April.
    15. Dongqing Han & Zhengxu Cao, 2024. "Evaluation and Influential Factors of Urban Land Use Efficiency in Yangtze River Economic Belt," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, May.
    16. Chasia, Stanley & Olang, Luke O. & Sitoki, Lewis, 2023. "Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    17. Yedong Chen & Jiang Chang & Zixuan Li & Li Ming & Cankun Li & Cheng Li, 2023. "Coupling Coordination and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Compactness and Land-Use Efficiency in Resource-Based Areas: A Case Study of Shanxi Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, August.
    18. Bin Duan & Xuanming Ji, 2021. "Can Carbon Finance Optimize Land Use Efficiency? The Example of China’s Carbon Emissions Trading Policy," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    19. Malin Song & Weiliang Tao, 2022. "Coupling and coordination analysis of China's regional urban‐rural integration and land‐use efficiency," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 1384-1413, September.
    20. Bin Yang & Zhanqi Wang & Bo Zhang & Di Zhang, 2020. "Allocation Efficiency, Influencing Factors and Optimization Path of Rural Land Resources: A Case Study in Fang County of Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-16, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:7161-:d:1719777. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.