IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i4p880-d1122573.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models

Author

Listed:
  • Juliana Freitas Santos

    (Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Institute of Geography at University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Udo Schickhoff

    (Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Institute of Geography at University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Shabeh ul Hasson

    (Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Institute of Geography at University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Jürgen Böhner

    (Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Institute of Geography at University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

The identification of the biogeophysical effects due to land-use, land-cover, and land- management changes (LULCC) is yet to be clearly understood. A range of factors, such as the inclusion of an interactive ocean model component, representation of land management, transient LULCC, and accountability for atmospheric feedback, potentially shifts how models may detect the impacts of the land surface on the climate system. Previous studies on the biogeophysical effects of LULCC in South Asia have either neglected one of those factors or are single model results. Therefore, we analyzed the outputs from 11 models, participants of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in its Sixth Phase (CMIP6), which derived from experiments with and without LULCC and compared the two simulations with respect to changes in near-surface temperature and total precipitation means. The CMIP6 simulations, to a certain extent, accounted for the elements previously overlooked. We examined the grid cells that robustly indicated a climatic impact from LULCC. Additionally, we investigated the atmospheric feedback and the dominant fluxes with their associated land surface variables involved in the changes in temperature and precipitation. Our results indicated that the biogeophysical effects from LULCC favored surface net cooling and surface net drying over the robust areas at all seasons. The surface net cooling was strongly influenced by the decrease in available energy and the increase in latent heat and total evapotranspiration. Surface net drying was highly promoted by local hydrological processes, especially in areas outside the monsoon core. The study also revealed that non-local sources might influence precipitation in some parts of South Asia, although this was inconclusive. Our research presented similar results to previous studies but with different magnitudes, which highlighted the added value of CMIP6-GCMs simulations but also their pitfalls.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Freitas Santos & Udo Schickhoff & Shabeh ul Hasson & Jürgen Böhner, 2023. "Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in South Asia: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:4:p:880-:d:1122573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/4/880/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/4/880/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew G. Turner & H. Annamalai, 2012. "Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 587-595, August.
    2. Duveiller, Gregory & Caporaso, Luca & Abad-Viñas, Raul & Perugini, Lucia & Grassi, Giacomo & Arneth, Almut & Cescatti, Alessandro, 2020. "Local biophysical effects of land use and land cover change: towards an assessment tool for policy makers," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Deepti Singh & Subimal Ghosh & Mathew K. Roxy & Sonali McDermid, 2019. "Indian summer monsoon: Extreme events, historical changes, and role of anthropogenic forcings," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pisor, Anne & Touma, Danielle & Singh, Deepti & Jones, James Holland, 2023. "To understand climate change adaptation we must characterize climate variability. Here’s how," OSF Preprints r382h, Center for Open Science.
    2. Junhua Yang & Shichang Kang & Deliang Chen & Lin Zhao & Zhenming Ji & Keqin Duan & Haijun Deng & Lekhendra Tripathee & Wentao Du & Mukesh Rai & Fangping Yan & Yuan Li & Robert R. Gillies, 2022. "South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Deg-Hyo Bae & Toshio Koike & Jehangir Awan & Moon-Hwan Lee & Kyung-Hwan Sohn, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5377-5393, November.
    4. Singh, Amarendra Pratap & Narayanan, Krishnan, 2016. "How can weather affect crop area diversity? Panel data evidence from Andhra Pradesh, a rice growing state of India," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 118(2), pages 1-10, August.
    5. G. Schrier & L. M. Rasmijn & J. Barkmeijer & A. Sterl & W. Hazeleger, 2018. "The 2010 Pakistan floods in a future climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 205-218, May.
    6. Chasia, Stanley & Olang, Luke O. & Sitoki, Lewis, 2023. "Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    7. Mark Rosenzweig & christopher Udry, 2013. "Forecasting Profitability," Working Papers 1029, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    8. Ajay Gajanan Bhave & Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Narendra Singh Raghuwanshi, 2016. "Integrated Assessment of no-Regret Climate Change Adaptation Options for Reservoir Catchment and Command Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1001-1018, February.
    9. Joshua N. Jones & Sarah J. Boulton & Martin Stokes & Georgina L. Bennett & Michael R. Z. Whitworth, 2021. "30-year record of Himalaya mass-wasting reveals landscape perturbations by extreme events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Md. Nazir Hossain & Swapna Chowdhury & Shitangsu Kumar Paul, 2016. "Farmer-level adaptation to climate change and agricultural drought: empirical evidences from the Barind region of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1007-1026, September.
    11. Andrea Karin Barrueto & Juerg Merz & Nicole Clot & Thomas Hammer, 2017. "Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Armands Auzins & Peter Brokking & Evelin Jürgenson & Peteris Lakovskis & Jenny Paulsson & Andis Romanovs & Jolanta Valčiukienė & Janis Viesturs & Kurt Weninger, 2022. "Land Resource Management Policy in Selected European Countries," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-32, December.
    13. Tuantuan Zhang & Xingwen Jiang & Song Yang & Junwen Chen & Zhenning Li, 2022. "A predictable prospect of the South Asian summer monsoon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Gregory Duveiller & Federico Filipponi & Andrej Ceglar & Jędrzej Bojanowski & Ramdane Alkama & Alessandro Cescatti, 2021. "Revealing the widespread potential of forests to increase low level cloud cover," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.
    16. Netrananda Sahu & Atul Saini & Swadhin Behera & Takahiro Sayama & Sridhara Nayak & Limonlisa Sahu & Weili Duan & Ram Avtar & Masafumi Yamada & R. B. Singh & Kaoru Takara, 2020. "Impact of Indo-Pacific Climate Variability on Rice Productivity in Bihar, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Saha, Moumita & Santara, Anirban & Mitra, Pabitra & Chakraborty, Arun & Nanjundiah, Ravi S., 2021. "Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 58-71.
    18. Sajjad Ali & Liu Ying & Tariq Shah & Azam Tariq & Abbas Ali Chandio & Ihsan Ali, 2019. "Analysis of the Nexus of CO 2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Land under Cereal Crops and Agriculture Value-Added in Pakistan Using an ARDL Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.
    19. Sajjad Ali & Li Gucheng & Liu Ying & Muhammad Ishaq & Tariq Shah, 2019. "The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Afridi, Farzana & Mahajan, Kanika & Sangwan, Nikita, 2022. "The gendered effects of droughts: Production shocks and labor response in agriculture," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:4:p:880-:d:1122573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.