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Forecasting Clean Energy Consumption in China by 2025: Using Improved Grey Model GM (1, N)

Author

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  • Maolin Cheng

    (Department of Statistics, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China)

  • Jiano Li

    (Department of Statistics, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China)

  • Yun Liu

    (Department of Statistics, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China)

  • Bin Liu

    (Department of Finance, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China)

Abstract

Forecasting China’s clean energy consumption has great significance for China in making sustainably economic development strategies. Because the main factors affecting China’s clean energy consumption are economic scale and population size, and there are three variables in total, this paper tries to simulate and forecast China’s clean energy consumption using the grey model GM (1, 3). However, the conventional grey GM (1, N) model has great simulation and forecasting errors, the main reason for which is the structural inconsistency between the grey differential equation for parameter estimation and the whitening equation for forecasting. In this case, this paper improves the conventional model and provides an improved model GM (1, N). The modeling results show that the improved grey model GM (1, N) built with the method proposed improves simulation and forecasting precision greatly compared with conventional models. To compare the model with other forecasting models, this paper builds a grey GM (1, 1) model, a regression model and a difference equation model. The comparison results show that the improved grey model GM (1, N) built with the method proposed shows simulation and forecasting precision superior to that of other models as a whole. In the final section, the paper forecasts China’s clean energy consumption from 2019 to 2025 using the improved grey model GM (1, N). The forecasting results show that, by 2025, China’s clean energy consumption shall reach the equivalent of 1.504976082 billion tons of standard coal. From 2019 to 2025, clean energy consumption shall increase by 11.32% annually on average, far above the economic growth rate, indicating China’s economic growth shall have a great demand for clean energy in the future. Studies have shown that China’s clean energy consumption shall increase rapidly with economic growth and population increase in the next few years.

Suggested Citation

  • Maolin Cheng & Jiano Li & Yun Liu & Bin Liu, 2020. "Forecasting Clean Energy Consumption in China by 2025: Using Improved Grey Model GM (1, N)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:698-:d:310210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Atif Maqbool Khan & Magdalena Osińska, 2021. "How to Predict Energy Consumption in BRICS Countries?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Jean Niyigaba & Daiyan Peng, 2020. "Analysis and Forecasting the Agriculture Production Sector in Rwanda," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 1-91, August.
    3. Geng Wu & Yi-Chung Hu & Yu-Jing Chiu & Shu-Ju Tsao, 2023. "A new multivariate grey prediction model for forecasting China’s regional energy consumption," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 4173-4193, May.
    4. Duan, Huiming & Pang, Xinyu, 2021. "A multivariate grey prediction model based on energy logistic equation and its application in energy prediction in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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