IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i1p401-d305136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

In What Measure Is Public Finance Sustainability Threatened by Illicit Tobacco Trade: The Case of Western Balkan Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Davor Mikulić

    (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Trg J.F. Kennedy 7, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Goran Buturac

    (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Trg J.F. Kennedy 7, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to gain new knowledge about illicit tobacco trade in Western Balkan countries and its effects on public finance sustainability. It includes an estimation of the volume of illicit tobacco trade, identifying and quantifying the key factors that cause illegal tobacco trade, the effects of illegal tobacco trade on public finance sustainability, and the effects on the intensity of total tobacco trade. An empirical analysis was conducted using the data collected by field research on consumer preferences in tobacco products in Western Balkan countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia). The reference research period is the year 2018. The results obtained show a high variability of volume of illicit tobacco trade in Western Balkan countries. While more than 20% of tobacco products in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina are bought on the gray market, a share of illicit tobacco trade lower than 5% is found in Slovenia and Macedonia. Underdeveloped institutional framework fighting against illicit trade and weak rule of law, coupled with the heavy taxation of tobacco products, are the key factors behind a higher intensity of illicit trade in comparison to more developed European Union (EU) economies. Illicit tobacco trade negatively affects the stability of public finance of Western Balkan economies and reduces the level of public service. It is especially important for the health system combating the negative consequences of smoking. Regular and illicit tobacco trade amongst Western Balkan countries is found to flow in opposite directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Davor Mikulić & Goran Buturac, 2020. "In What Measure Is Public Finance Sustainability Threatened by Illicit Tobacco Trade: The Case of Western Balkan Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:401-:d:305136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/1/401/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/1/401/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jha, Prabhat & Chaloupka, Frank (ed.), 2000. "Tobacco Control in Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192632463, Decembrie.
    2. John R. Baldwin & Wulong Gu, 2004. "Trade Liberalization: Export-market Participation, Productivity Growth, and Innovation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(3), pages 372-392, Autumn.
    3. repec:bla:econom:v:55:y:1988:i:217:p:107-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. James E. Prieger & Jonathan Kulick, 2018. "Cigarette Taxes And Illicit Trade In Europe," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1706-1723, July.
    5. Jagdish Bhagwati & Bent Hansen, 1973. "A Theoretical Analysis of Smuggling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(2), pages 172-187.
    6. World Health Organization, 2017. "WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic 2017: Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies," University of California at San Francisco, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education qt8nw5p0zt, Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, UC San Francisco.
    7. Peshevski, Mile & Ameti, Iljaz & Vukaj, Oriola & Petkov, Robert, 2013. "Trading Of Agricultural Products From Agrocomplex Between Countries From Balkan Region," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1-9, December.
    8. A. Yurekli & O. Sayginsoy, 2010. "Worldwide organized cigarette smuggling: an empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 545-561.
    9. Pitt, Mark M., 1981. "Smuggling and price disparity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 447-458, November.
    10. Francesco Calderoni, 2014. "A new method for estimating the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level and its application to Italy," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1-2), pages 51-76, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Recher, Vedran, 2020. "Illegal tobacco demand: The case of Western Balkan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 182-193.
    2. Andreas Buehn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2012. "Smuggling around the world: evidence from a structural equation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3047-3064, August.
    3. Connely, Michael & Devereux, John & Cortes, Mariluz, 1995. "The transhipment problem: Smuggling and welfare in Paraguay," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 975-985, June.
    4. Vedran Recher, 2019. "Tobacco smuggling in the Western Balkan region: Exploring habits, attitudes, and predictors of illegal tobacco demand," Working Papers 1901, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    5. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2009. "Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 489-507, December.
    6. Théophile T Azomahou & Racky Baldé & Abdoulaye Diagne & Pape Yona Mané & Ibrahima Sory Kaba, 2019. "Public finances and tobacco taxation with product variety: Theory and application to Senegal and Nigeria," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Lahiri, Sajal & Nasim, Anjum & Ghani, Jawaid, 2000. "Optimal second-best tariffs on an intermediate input with particular reference to Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 393-416, April.
    8. Rafat MAHMOOD & Eatzaz AHMAD, 2015. "Measurement Of Import Smuggling In Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(2), pages 135-159.
    9. Scott Fausti, 1999. "Production uncertainty, enforcement, and smuggling: a stochastic model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 279-308.
    10. Gene M. Grossman & Carl Shapiro, 1988. "Foreign Counterfeiting of Status Goods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 79-100.
    11. Jade Siu, 2020. "Formalising informal cross-border trade: Evidence from One-Stop-Border-Posts in Uganda," Discussion Papers 20-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    12. Dercon, Stefan & Ayalew, Lulseged, 1995. "Smuggling and supply response: Coffee in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1795-1813, October.
    13. Ogbulu, Onyemachi Maxwell & Torbira, Lezaasi Lenee, 2017. "Transmission Effect of the Interaction between Parallel and Official Foreign Exchange Markets in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(6), pages 76-90, 06-2017.
    14. Kazuki Onji, 2009. "A Tale of Pork Prices: Evasion and Attenuation of a Japanese Tariff," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 382, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Marilina Santero & Santiago Melendi & Akram Hernández-Vásquez & Vilma Irazola, 2019. "Socio-economic inequalities in smoking prevalence and involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke in Argentina: Analysis of three cross-sectional nationally representative surveys in 2005, 2009 and 2013," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, June.
    16. Onji, Kazuki, 2014. "The price disparity analysis revisited: An application to pork imports in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-23.
    17. Günther G. Schulze, 1994. "Misinvoicing Imports: the Interdependence of Tax and Tariff Evasion," Public Finance Review, , vol. 22(3), pages 335-365, July.
    18. Scott Fausti, 1997. "Joint-Product Export Smuggling and Export Tax Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 51-69, January.
    19. Raghbendra Jha & Duc Nguyen Truong, 2015. "Estimates of Trade Mis-invoicing and Their Macroeconomic Outcomes for the Indian Economy," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 19-34, May.
    20. Bruno Larue & Sébastien Pouliot & Christos Constantatos, 2009. "Exports to Smuggle and Smuggling Technologies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 476-493, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:401-:d:305136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.