IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new method for estimating the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level and its application to Italy


  • Francesco Calderoni


This study provides a methodology with which to estimate the volumes and revenues of the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level. It applies the methodology to Italy for a 4-year period (2009--2012), enabling assessment of the prevalence of the illicit trade across years and regions. Notwithstanding the alleged importance of mafias, the results provide a more complex picture of the Italian illicit tobacco market. The maximum total revenues from the illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) increased from €0.5 bn in 2009 to €1.2 bn in 2012. The prevalence of illicit cigarettes varies significantly across regions, because of the proximity to countries with cheaper cigarettes and the possible occurrence of other crime opportunities. Understanding of these factors is crucial for the development of appropriate policies against the ITTP. The methodology may be applicable to all other EU countries, providing detailed, yearly estimates of the illicit market at the subnational level.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Calderoni, 2014. "A new method for estimating the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level and its application to Italy," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1-2), pages 51-76, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:fglcxx:v:15:y:2014:i:1-2:p:51-76
    DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2014.882777

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:fglcxx:v:15:y:2014:i:1-2:p:51-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.