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Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India

Author

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  • Vanshika Dhamija

    (Department of Natural Resources, TERI School of Advanced Studies, New Delhi 110070, India)

  • Roopam Shukla

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany)

  • Christoph Gornott

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany)

  • PK Joshi

    (School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India
    Special Centre for Disaster Research, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067, India)

Abstract

In India, a reduction in wheat crop yield would lead to a widespread impact on food security. In particular, the most vulnerable people are severely exposed to food insecurity. This study estimates the climate change vulnerability of wheat crops with respect to heterogeneities in time, space, and weighting methods. The study uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability while using composite indices of 27 indicators to explain exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used climate projections under current (1975–2005) conditions and two future (2021–2050) Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate exposure to climatic risks. Consistency across three weighting methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Equal Weights (EWs)) was evaluated. Results of the vulnerability profile suggest high vulnerability of the wheat crop in northern and central India. In particular, the districts Unnao, Sirsa, Hardoi, and Bathinda show high vulnerability and high consistency across current and future climate scenarios. In total, 84% of the districts show more than 75% consistency in the current climate, and 83% and 68% of the districts show more than 75% consistency for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario for the three weighting methods, respectively. By using different weighting methods, it was possible to quantify “method uncertainty” in vulnerability assessment and enhance robustness in identifying most vulnerable regions. Finally, we emphasize the importance of communicating uncertainties, both in data and methods in vulnerability research, to effectively guide adaptation planning. The results of this study would serve as the basis for designing climate impacts adjusted adaptation measures for policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanshika Dhamija & Roopam Shukla & Christoph Gornott & PK Joshi, 2020. "Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:19:p:8256-:d:424630
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Esha Zaveri & David Lobell, 2019. "The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Qunying Luo, 2011. "Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 583-598, December.
    3. Eric Tate, 2012. "Social vulnerability indices: a comparative assessment using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 325-347, September.
    4. R. Mall & Ranjeet Singh & Akhilesh Gupta & G. Srinivasan & L. Rathore, 2007. "Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: a review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 82(1), pages 225-231, May.
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    2. Jun Tu & Shiwei Luo & Yongfeng Yang & Puyan Qin & Pengwei Qi & Qiaoqiao Li, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and the Influencing Factors of Tourism-Based Social-Ecological System Vulnerability in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, April.

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