IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i10p3979-d357350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projection of Wind Energy Potential over Northern China Using a Regional Climate Model

Author

Listed:
  • Zhuo Chen

    (MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Wei Li

    (MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Junhong Guo

    (MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Zhe Bao

    (MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Zhangrong Pan

    (MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Baodeng Hou

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

With the purpose of achieving carbon emission reduction targets, the wind power industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Wind power is greatly affected by climate change, and the increase or decrease of wind speed directly affects wind energy production. Based on the numerical simulation results from a high-resolution (~ 25 km) regional climate model PRECIS, we analyze the changes of future wind speed and wind power potential in the "Three North" (TN) region in China. Firstly, we verify whether the PRECIS can capture the current spatiotemporal patterns in simulating the wind speed compared with observation (CN05.1). The results show PRECIS has a good ability in reproducing the spatiotemporal patterns of wind speed in the eastern part of the TN region, but still has great uncertainty in the northwest. In the future, the projected wind power density in the TN region will increase by about 0.7% in the middle of the 21 st century, but will drop significantly in the end of the century (about −3.32%). Furthermore, Wind power density will increase significantly in winter. However, the wind speed in spring and summer will generally decrease. It is predicted that most of the Northwest (NW) and North (N) will have strong inter-annual variability in the middle of this century, and will be more stable at the end of this century. It should be noted that the potential of wind energy in Northeast (NE) will grow steadily in this century, which will have certain guiding significance for future wind power planning in this region.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuo Chen & Wei Li & Junhong Guo & Zhe Bao & Zhangrong Pan & Baodeng Hou, 2020. "Projection of Wind Energy Potential over Northern China Using a Regional Climate Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:10:p:3979-:d:357350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/3979/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/3979/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Dahai & Wang, Jiaqi & Lin, Yonggang & Si, Yulin & Huang, Can & Yang, Jing & Huang, Bin & Li, Wei, 2017. "Present situation and future prospect of renewable energy in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 865-871.
    2. Liu, Fa & Sun, Fubao & Liu, Wenbin & Wang, Tingting & Wang, Hong & Wang, Xunming & Lim, Wee Ho, 2019. "On wind speed pattern and energy potential in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 867-876.
    3. Jeff Tollefson, 2018. "IPCC says limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require drastic action," Nature, Nature, vol. 562(7726), pages 172-173, October.
    4. R. J. Barthelmie & S. C. Pryor, 2014. "Potential contribution of wind energy to climate change mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(8), pages 684-688, August.
    5. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    6. Jianbo Yang & Qunyi Liu & Xin Li & Xiandan Cui, 2017. "Overview of Wind Power in China: Status and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-12, August.
    7. Jiahai Yuan, 2016. "Wind energy in China: Estimating the potential," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(7), pages 1-2, July.
    8. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao, 2019. "The impact of climate change on wind power abundance and variability in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    10. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    11. Johnson, Dana L. & Erhardt, Robert J., 2016. "Projected impacts of climate change on wind energy density in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 66-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yasemin Ayaz Atalan & Mete Tayanç & Kamil Erkan & Abdulkadir Atalan, 2020. "Development of Nonlinear Optimization Models for Wind Power Plants Using Box-Behnken Design of Experiment: A Case Study for Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Chaoli Tang & Xinhua Tao & Yuanyuan Wei & Ziyue Tong & Fangzheng Zhu & Han Lin, 2022. "Analysis and Prediction of Wind Speed Effects in East Asia and the Western Pacific Based on Multi-Source Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Zhuo, Chen & Junhong, Guo & Wei, Li & Fei, Zhang & Chan, Xiao & Zhangrong, Pan, 2022. "Changes in wind energy potential over China using a regional climate model ensemble," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao, 2019. "The impact of climate change on wind power abundance and variability in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Liang, Yushi & Wu, Chunbing & Ji, Xiaodong & Zhang, Mulan & Li, Yiran & He, Jianjun & Qin, Zhiheng, 2022. "Estimation of the influences of spatiotemporal variations in air density on wind energy assessment in China based on deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    3. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao & Miao, Changhong & Yang, Fan, 2022. "Distributed onshore wind farm siting using intelligent optimization algorithm based on spatial and temporal variability of wind energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    5. Chen, Liang, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on wind resources over North America based on NA-CORDEX," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1428-1438.
    6. Liu, Fa & Wang, Xunming & Sun, Fubao & Kleidon, Axel, 2023. "Potential impact of global stilling on wind energy production in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    7. Martinez, A. & Murphy, L. & Iglesias, G., 2023. "Evolution of offshore wind resources in Northern Europe under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Liu, Fa & Sun, Fubao & Liu, Wenbin & Wang, Tingting & Wang, Hong & Wang, Xunming & Lim, Wee Ho, 2019. "On wind speed pattern and energy potential in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 867-876.
    9. Fuquan Zhao & Fanlong Bai & Xinglong Liu & Zongwei Liu, 2022. "A Review on Renewable Energy Transition under China’s Carbon Neutrality Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-27, November.
    10. Vu Dinh, Quang & Doan, Quang-Van & Ngo-Duc, Thanh & Nguyen Dinh, Van & Dinh Duc, Nguyen, 2022. "Offshore wind resource in the context of global climate change over a tropical area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    11. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    12. Santos, F. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & deCastro, M. & Añel, J.A. & Carvalho, D. & Costoya, Xurxo & Dias, J.M., 2018. "On the accuracy of CORDEX RCMs to project future winds over the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 289-300.
    13. de Jong, Pieter & Barreto, Tarssio B. & Tanajura, Clemente A.S. & Kouloukoui, Daniel & Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P. & Kiperstok, Asher & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2019. "Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 390-401.
    14. Akintayo T. Abolude & Wen Zhou & Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola, 2020. "Evaluation and Projections of Wind Power Resources over China for the Energy Industry Using CMIP5 Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, May.
    15. He, J.Y. & Li, Q.S. & Chan, P.W. & Zhao, X.D., 2023. "Assessment of future wind resources under climate change using a multi-model and multi-method ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    16. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    17. Miao, Haozeyu & Xu, Haiming & Huang, Gang & Yang, Kai, 2023. "Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 809-821.
    18. Suomalainen, Kiti & Wen, Le & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Climate change impact on the cost of decarbonisation in a hydro-based power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    19. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    20. Zhuo, Chen & Junhong, Guo & Wei, Li & Fei, Zhang & Chan, Xiao & Zhangrong, Pan, 2022. "Changes in wind energy potential over China using a regional climate model ensemble," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:10:p:3979-:d:357350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.