IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i24p7166-d297923.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Hybrid GIS and AHP Approach for Modelling Actual and Future Forest Fire Risk Under Climate Change Accounting Water Resources Attenuation Role

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluigi Busico

    (DiSTABiF—Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, Campania University “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Via Vivaldi 43, 81100 Caserta, Italy)

  • Elisabetta Giuditta

    (DiSTABiF—Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, Campania University “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Via Vivaldi 43, 81100 Caserta, Italy)

  • Nerantzis Kazakis

    (Department of Geology, Laboratory of Engineering Geology Hydrogeology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Nicolò Colombani

    (Department of Materials, Environmental Sciences and Urban Planning, Polytechnic University of Marche, Via Brecce Bianche 12, 60131 Ancona, Italy)

Abstract

Forest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an effect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Different factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been affected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, offering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R 2 ). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluigi Busico & Elisabetta Giuditta & Nerantzis Kazakis & Nicolò Colombani, 2019. "A Hybrid GIS and AHP Approach for Modelling Actual and Future Forest Fire Risk Under Climate Change Accounting Water Resources Attenuation Role," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:24:p:7166-:d:297923
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/24/7166/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/24/7166/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc-André Parisien & Gregg Walker & John Little & Brian Simpson & Xianli Wang & Daniel Perrakis, 2013. "Considerations for modeling burn probability across landscapes with steep environmental gradients: an example from the Columbia Mountains, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 439-462, March.
    2. Lei Wang & Qingjian Zhao & Zuomin Wen & Jiaming Qu, 2018. "RAFFIA: Short-term Forest Fire Danger Rating Prediction via Multiclass Logistic Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Melania Michetti & Mehmet Pinar, 2019. "Forest Fires Across Italian Regions and Implications for Climate Change: A Panel Data Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 207-246, January.
    4. Jaehoon Jung & Changjae Kim & Shanmuganathan Jayakumar & Seongsam Kim & Soohee Han & Dong Kim & Joon Heo, 2013. "Forest fire risk mapping of Kolli Hills, India, considering subjectivity and inconsistency issues," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 2129-2146, February.
    5. Sturtevant, Brian R. & Scheller, Robert M. & Miranda, Brian R. & Shinneman, Douglas & Syphard, Alexandra, 2009. "Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3380-3393.
    6. Hamed Adab & Kasturi Kanniah & Karim Solaimani, 2013. "Modeling forest fire risk in the northeast of Iran using remote sensing and GIS techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1723-1743, February.
    7. Vassiliki Varela & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Stelios Karozis & Nadia Politi & Frédérique Giroud, 2019. "Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Hussain & Muhammad Tayyab & Jiquan Zhang & Ashfaq Ahmad Shah & Kashif Ullah & Ummer Mehmood & Bazel Al-Shaibah, 2021. "GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Approach for Flood Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping in District Shangla: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Hazem Ghassan Abdo & Hussein Almohamad & Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi & Motirh Al-Mutiry, 2022. "GIS-Based Frequency Ratio and Analytic Hierarchy Process for Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping in the Western Region of Syria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Gianluigi Busico & Maria Margarita Ntona & Sílvia C. P. Carvalho & Olga Patrikaki & Konstantinos Voudouris & Nerantzis Kazakis, 2021. "Simulating Future Groundwater Recharge in Coastal and Inland Catchments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3617-3632, September.
    4. Solangi, Yasir Ahmed & Longsheng, Cheng & Shah, Syed Ahsan Ali, 2021. "Assessing and overcoming the renewable energy barriers for sustainable development in Pakistan: An integrated AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 209-222.
    5. Seyed Farhan Moosavian & Daryoosh Borzuei & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Cost Analysis of Water Quality Assessment Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4843-4862, September.
    6. Nikolay Baranovskiy & Aleksey Malinin, 2020. "Mathematical Simulation of Forest Fire Impact on Industrial Facilities and Wood-Based Buildings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Joana Farinha & Lúcio Cunha & Luca Antonio Dimuccio, 2022. "Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Social Vulnerability and Forest Fire Risk in the Pinhal Interior Sul (Central Portugal)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, March.
    8. Kinley Tshering & Phuntsho Thinley & Mahyat Shafapour Tehrany & Ugyen Thinley & Farzin Shabani, 2020. "A Comparison of the Qualitative Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Quantitative Frequency Ratio Techniques in Predicting Forest Fire-Prone Areas in Bhutan Using GIS," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Gianluigi Busico & Eleonora Grilli & Silvia C. P. Carvalho & Micòl Mastrocicco & Simona Castaldi, 2023. "Assessing Soil Erosion Susceptibility for Past and Future Scenarios in Semiarid Mediterranean Agroecosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-17, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shruti Sachdeva & Tarunpreet Bhatia & A. K. Verma, 2018. "GIS-based evolutionary optimized Gradient Boosted Decision Trees for forest fire susceptibility mapping," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1399-1418, July.
    2. Sarkawt G. Salar & Arsalan Ahmed Othman & Sabri Rasooli & Salahalddin S. Ali & Zaid T. Al-Attar & Veraldo Liesenberg, 2022. "GIS-Based Modeling for Vegetated Land Fire Prediction in Qaradagh Area, Kurdistan Region, Iraq," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-31, May.
    3. Roghayeh Jahdi & Michele Salis & Fermin J. Alcasena & Mahdi Arabi & Bachisio Arca & Pierpaolo Duce, 2020. "Evaluating landscape-scale wildfire exposure in northwestern Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 911-932, April.
    4. Farzaneh Noroozi & Gholamabbas Ghanbarian & Roja Safaeian & Hamid Reza Pourghasemi, 2024. "Forest fire mapping: a comparison between GIS-based random forest and Bayesian models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(7), pages 6569-6592, May.
    5. Lucash, Melissa S. & Marshall, Adrienne M. & Weiss, Shelby A. & McNabb, John W. & Nicolsky, Dmitry J. & Flerchinger, Gerald N. & Link, Timothy E. & Vogel, Jason G. & Scheller, Robert M. & Abramoff, Ro, 2023. "Burning trees in frozen soil: Simulating fire, vegetation, soil, and hydrology in the boreal forests of Alaska," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    6. Hao Dong & Han Wu & Pengfei Sun & Yunhong Ding, 2022. "Wildfire Prediction Model Based on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics: A Case Study of a Wildfire in Portugal’s Montesinho Natural Park," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Hamed Adab & Kasturi Devi Kanniah & Karim Solaimani, 2021. "Remote sensing-based operational modeling of fuel ignitability in Hyrcanian mixed forest, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 253-283, August.
    8. Zekeriya Konurhan & Melih Yucesan & Muhammet Gul, 2025. "Investigating forest fire causes through an integrated Bayesian network and geographic information system approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(11), pages 12933-12958, June.
    9. Miqueias Lima Duarte & Tatiana Acácio Silva & Jocy Ana Paixão Sousa & Amazonino Lemos Castro & Roberto Wagner Lourenço, 2025. "Application of a hybrid fuzzy inference system to map the susceptibility to fires," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(1), pages 1117-1141, January.
    10. Abolfazl Jaafari & Omid Rahmati & Eric K. Zenner & Davood Mafi-Gholami, 2022. "Anthropogenic activities amplify wildfire occurrence in the Zagros eco-region of western Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 457-473, October.
    11. Jinghu Pan & Weiguo Wang & Junfeng Li, 2016. "Building probabilistic models of fire occurrence and fire risk zoning using logistic regression in Shanxi Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1879-1899, April.
    12. Osama Ashraf Mohammed & Sasan Vafaei & Mehdi Mirzaei Kurdalivand & Sabri Rasooli & Chaolong Yao & Tongxin Hu, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Forest Fire Mapping Using GIS-Based Data Mining Approaches in Western Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Mehmet Cetin & Özge Isik Pekkan & Mehtap Ozenen Kavlak & Ilker Atmaca & Suhrabuddin Nasery & Masoud Derakhshandeh & Saye Nihan Cabuk, 2023. "GIS-based forest fire risk determination for Milas district, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(3), pages 2299-2320, December.
    14. Inglis, Nicole C. & Vukomanovic, Jelena, 2020. "Climate change disproportionately affects visual quality of cultural ecosystem services in a mountain region," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    15. Ali Akbar JAFARZADEH & Ali MAHDAVI & Heydar JAFARZADEH, 2017. "Evaluation of forest fire risk using the Apriori algorithm and fuzzy c-means clustering," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(8), pages 370-380.
    16. Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2023. "Climate change and spatial agricultural development in Turkey," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 1699-1720, August.
    17. Olga M. Lozano & Michele Salis & Alan A. Ager & Bachisio Arca & Fermin J. Alcasena & Antonio T. Monteiro & Mark A. Finney & Liliana Del Giudice & Enrico Scoccimarro & Donatella Spano, 2017. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1898-1916, October.
    18. Elettra Agliardi & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Introduction: Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change and Sustainability," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 1-4, January.
    19. Bart, Ryan R. & Kennedy, Maureen C. & Tague, Christina L. & McKenzie, Donald, 2020. "Integrating fire effects on vegetation carbon cycling within an ecohydrologic model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 416(C).
    20. Faisal, Abdullah Al & Kafy, Abdulla - Al & Afroz, Farzana & Rahaman, Zullyadini A., 2023. "Exploring and forecasting spatial and temporal patterns of fire hazard risk in Nepal's tiger conservation zones," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:24:p:7166-:d:297923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.