Thinking Outside the Box: Deepening Private Sector Investments in Fiji’s Nationally Determined Contributions through Scenario Analysis

Private finance is seen as the financing panacea for resourcing the nationally determined contributions (NDC) submitted by 170 countries to the United Nations (UN) system. Mobilizing private investment is challenging, especially for vulnerable Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Fifteen PICs have already submitted ambitious NDC targets, in which transition towards a sustainable energy environment through investment in renewable energy (RE) is central. Presently, RE investments in PICs are primarily external donor financed, however, reliance on limited and uncertain external finance is unlikely to deliver the required energy transition. A future scenario methodology was used, with Fiji as a case-study; the analysis provided insight into alternative trajectories towards transition. Based on the scenario analysis, an NDC resource mobilization framework was developed. Conclusions suggest that donors should re-orientate their priorities from investments in RE installations, towards investments that upgrade the current RE readiness levels and promote a long-term perspective of “organically growing” the local private RE sector. Channeling resources to target initiatives that will endogenously grow the domestic private sector is critical for PICs, as well as other developing countries, which represent a majority of the NDCs, and which are projected to dominate global growth in energy demand for decades to come.