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Calculation of Characterization Factors of Mineral Resources Considering Future Primary Resource Use Changes: A Comparison between Iron and Copper

Author

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  • Ryosuke Yokoi

    () (Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan)

  • Jun Nakatani

    () (Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan)

  • Yuichi Moriguchi

    () (Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan)

Abstract

The future availability of mineral resources has attracted much attention; therefore, a quantitative evaluation of the potential impacts of resource use on future availability is important. Although the surplus cost model is often recommended among the existing endpoint characterization models of mineral resources, it has a shortcoming as it does not consider the changes in future primary resource use. This paper introduces a new characterization model considering future primary resource use changes, due to future changes in total demand and secondary resource use. Using material flow analysis, this study estimated time-series primary resource use for iron and copper for five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and a constant total demand scenario. New characterization factors, i.e., demand change-based surplus costs (DCSC), are calculated for each resource. In all of the SSPs, the calculated DCSCs are larger than the conventional surplus costs (SC) for both iron and copper. The DCSC, relative to the SC of copper, is larger than that of iron for all of the SSPs, which suggests that the potential impacts of copper use, relative to iron, will be underestimated, unless future primary resource use changes are considered. In calculating DCSC for other resources, it is important to choose an appropriate approach for forecasting future total demands.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryosuke Yokoi & Jun Nakatani & Yuichi Moriguchi, 2018. "Calculation of Characterization Factors of Mineral Resources Considering Future Primary Resource Use Changes: A Comparison between Iron and Copper," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:267-:d:127885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zongguo Wen & Chenkai Zhang & Xiaoli Ji & Yanyan Xue, 2015. "Urban Mining's Potential to Relieve China's Coming Resource Crisis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(6), pages 1091-1102, December.
    2. Tilton, John E. & Lagos, Gustavo, 2007. "Assessing the long-run availability of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 19-23.
    3. Gomez, Fernando & Guzman, Juan Ignacio & Tilton, John E., 2007. "Copper recycling and scrap availability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 183-190, December.
    4. Shinichiro Nakamura & Kenichi Nakajima & Yasushi Kondo & Tetsuya Nagasaka, 2007. "The Waste Input‚ÄźOutput Approach to Materials Flow Analysis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 11(4), pages 50-63, October.
    5. Spatari, S. & Bertram, M. & Gordon, Robert B. & Henderson, K. & Graedel, T.E., 2005. "Twentieth century copper stocks and flows in North America: A dynamic analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-51, July.
    6. Tilton, John E., 1996. "Exhaustible resources and sustainable development : Two different paradigms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 91-97.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shule Li & Jingjing Yan & Qiuming Pei & Jinghua Sha & Siyu Mou & Yong Xiao, 2019. "Risk Identification and Evaluation of the Long-term Supply of Manganese Mines in China Based on the VW-BGR Method," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    life cycle impact assessment; material flow analysis; characterization factor; surplus cost; future demand; secondary resource; shared socioeconomic pathways;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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