IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v13y2025i3p46-d1602288.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyber, Geopolitical, and Financial Risks in Rare Earth Markets: Drivers of Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Emilia Calefariu Giol

    (Department of Engineering and Industrial Management, Transilvania University of Brasov, Eroilor Street 29, 500036 Brasov, Romania)

  • Oana Panazan

    (Department of Engineering and Industrial Management, Transilvania University of Brasov, Eroilor Street 29, 500036 Brasov, Romania)

  • Catalin Gheorghe

    (Department of Engineering and Industrial Management, Transilvania University of Brasov, Eroilor Street 29, 500036 Brasov, Romania)

Abstract

This study examines the integrated impacts of cyberattacks, geopolitical, and financial market volatility on rare earth markets during the 2014–2024 period, using Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression and wavelet analysis. By bridging critical gaps in the literature, this research provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the compounded effects of emerging risks on market dynamics. The analysis includes key market indices (SOLLIT, PICK, SPGSIN, GSPTXGM, MVREMXTR, and XME), alongside green energy prices, to capture cross-market dependencies. The findings reveal that financial volatility exerts the most persistent long-term influence, while geopolitical events, such as the US-China trade tensions and the Ukraine conflict, trigger significant market disruptions. Cyberattacks, although episodic, exacerbate short-term volatility, especially during global crises. Rising green energy prices further amplify vulnerabilities in supply chains, underscoring the interconnectedness of rare earth markets and the sustainable energy transition. This research provides actionable insights for integrated risk management strategies, emphasizing supply chain diversification, enhanced cybersecurity, and international cooperation to ensure market stability and resilience in the energy transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilia Calefariu Giol & Oana Panazan & Catalin Gheorghe, 2025. "Cyber, Geopolitical, and Financial Risks in Rare Earth Markets: Drivers of Market Volatility," Risks, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-27, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:46-:d:1602288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/3/46/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/3/46/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Sulgiye & Tracy, Cameron L. & Ewing, Rodney C., 2023. "Reimagining US rare earth production: Domestic failures and the decline of US rare earth production dominance – Lessons learned and recommendations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Fan, John Hua & Omura, Akihiro & Roca, Eduardo, 2023. "Geopolitics and rare earth metals," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Onur Polat & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Mariem Brahim, 2025. "Climate Risks and Predictability of the Conditional Distributions of Rare Earth Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 202517, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Kansuda Pankwaen & Sukrit Thongkairat & Worrawat Saijai, 2025. "Global Cross-Market Trading Optimization Using Iterative Combined Algorithm: A Multi-Asset Approach with Stocks and Cryptocurrencies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-27, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gao, Wang & Wei, Jiajia & Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Haizhen, 2024. "The higher-order moments connectedness between rare earth and clean energy markets and the role of geopolitical risk:New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    2. Deberdt, Raphael & James, Cara B.G., 2024. "Self-governance at depth: The international seabed authority and verification culture of the deep-sea mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Lindahl, Robert & Stenvall, David & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Geopolitical shocks and commodity market dynamics: New evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Mariev, Oleg & Blueschke, Dmitri, 2025. "Interplay of Chinese rare earth elements supply and European clean energy transition: A geopolitical context analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    5. Gao, Yang & Liu, Xiaoyi, 2024. "Time and frequency spillovers and drivers between rare earth and energy, metals, green, and agricultural markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2024. "Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Hamed, Mosaab M. & Turan, Hasan Hüseyin & Elsawah, Sondoss, 2024. "Balancing supply diversification and environmental impacts: A system dynamics approach to de-risk rare earths supply chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Onur Polat & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Mariem Brahim, 2025. "Climate Risks and Predictability of the Conditional Distributions of Rare Earth Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 202517, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2024. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on energy transition metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak & Jarosław Joostberens, 2024. "The Role of Clean Coal Technologies in the Development of Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Cheilas, Panagiotis & Christou, Tryfonas & Karkalakos, Sotiris & Kottaridi, Constantina & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2025. "Rare earth elements and the US renewable economy: A causality exploration between critical materials and clean energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:13:y:2025:i:3:p:46-:d:1602288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.