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The Impact of Future Offshore Wind Farms on Wind Power Generation in Great Britain

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel R. Drew

    (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK)

  • Dirk J. Cannon

    (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK)

  • David J. Brayshaw

    (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK)

  • Janet F. Barlow

    (Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK)

  • Phil J. Coker

    (School of Construction Management and Engineering, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AW, UK)

Abstract

In the coming years the geographical distribution of wind farms in Great Britain is expected to change significantly. Following the development of the “round 3” wind zones (circa 2025), most of the installed capacity will be located in large offshore wind farms. However, the impact of this change in wind-farm distribution on the characteristics of national wind generation is largely unknown. This study uses a 34-year reanalysis dataset (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) from National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA-GMAO)) to produce a synthetic hourly time series of GB-aggregated wind generation based on: (1) the “current” wind farm distribution; and (2) a “future” wind farm distribution scenario. The derived data are used to estimate a climatology of extreme wind power events in Great Britain for each wind farm distribution. The impact of the changing wind farm distribution on the wind-power statistics is significant. The annual mean capacity factor increased from 32.7% for the current wind farm distribution to 39.7% for the future distribution. In addition, there are fewer periods of prolonged low generation and more periods of prolonged high generation. Finally, the frequency and magnitude of ramping in the nationally aggregated capacity factor remains largely unchanged. However, due to the increased capacity of the future distribution, in terms of power output, the magnitude of the ramping increases by a factor of 5.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel R. Drew & Dirk J. Cannon & David J. Brayshaw & Janet F. Barlow & Phil J. Coker, 2015. "The Impact of Future Offshore Wind Farms on Wind Power Generation in Great Britain," Resources, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:4:y:2015:i:1:p:155-171:d:46937
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brayshaw, David James & Troccoli, Alberto & Fordham, Rachael & Methven, John, 2011. "The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: A case study over the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2087-2096.
    2. Snyder, Brian & Kaiser, Mark J., 2009. "Ecological and economic cost-benefit analysis of offshore wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1567-1578.
    3. Heptonstall, Philip & Gross, Robert & Greenacre, Philip & Cockerill, Tim, 2012. "The cost of offshore wind: Understanding the past and projecting the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 815-821.
    4. Sinden, Graham, 2007. "Characteristics of the UK wind resource: Long-term patterns and relationship to electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 112-127, January.
    5. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    6. Staffell, Iain & Green, Richard, 2014. "How does wind farm performance decline with age?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 775-786.
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    Cited by:

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