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Computer Analysis of Human Belligerency

Author

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  • José A. Tenreiro Machado

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Institute of Engineering, Polytechnic of Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 431, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • António M. Lopes

    (LAETA/INEGI, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Maria Eugénia Mata

    (Nova SBE, Nova School of Business and Economics (Faculdade de Economia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa), Rua da Holanda, 1, 2775-405 Carcavelos, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

War is a cause of gains and losses. Economic historians have long stressed the extreme importance of considering the economic potential of society for belligerency, the role of management of chaos to bear the costs of battle and casualties, and ingenious and improvisation methodologies for emergency management. However, global and inter-temporal studies on warring are missing. The adoption of computational tools for data processing is a key modeling option with present day resources. In this paper, hierarchical clustering techniques and multidimensional scaling are used as efficient instruments for visualizing and describing military conflicts by electing different metrics to assess their characterizing features: time, time span, number of belligerents, and number of casualties. Moreover, entropy is adopted for measuring war complexity over time. Although wars have been an important topic of analysis in all ages, they have been ignored as a subject of nonlinear dynamics and complex system analysis. This paper seeks to fill these gaps in the literature by proposing a quantitative perspective based on algorithmic strategies. We verify the growing number of events and an explosion in their characteristics. The results have similarities to those exhibited by systems with increasing volatility, or evolving toward chaotic-like behavior. We can question also whether such dynamics follow the second law of thermodynamics since the adopted techniques reflect a system expanding the entropy.

Suggested Citation

  • José A. Tenreiro Machado & António M. Lopes & Maria Eugénia Mata, 2020. "Computer Analysis of Human Belligerency," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:8:p:1201-:d:387796
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cederman, Lars-Erik, 2003. "Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 135-150, February.
    2. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Sheremeta, Roman M., 2019. "Theories of conflict and war," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 384-387.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lopes, António M. & Machado, J.A. Tenreiro, 2022. "Multidimensional scaling and visualization of patterns in global large-scale accidents," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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