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Land-Use Threats and Protected Areas: A Scenario-Based, Landscape Level Approach

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  • Tamara S. Wilson

    (U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA)

  • Benjamin M. Sleeter

    (U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA)

  • Rachel R. Sleeter

    (U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA)

  • Christopher E. Soulard

    (U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA)

Abstract

Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km 2 ) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades ( i . e ., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamara S. Wilson & Benjamin M. Sleeter & Rachel R. Sleeter & Christopher E. Soulard, 2014. "Land-Use Threats and Protected Areas: A Scenario-Based, Landscape Level Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:3:y:2014:i:2:p:362-389:d:34854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. R. Margules & R. L. Pressey, 2000. "Systematic conservation planning," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6783), pages 243-253, May.
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    2. Roshan Sharma & Udo Nehren & Syed Ajijur Rahman & Maximilian Meyer & Bhagawat Rimal & Gilang Aria Seta & Himlal Baral, 2018. "Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on Biodiversity in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, May.
    3. Zuzana Pazúrová & Rogier Pouwels & Jana Ružičková & Janine Bolliger & Juliana Krokusová & Ján Oťaheľ & Robert Pazúr, 2018. "Effects of Landscape Changes on Species Viability: A Case Study from Northern Slovakia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
    4. Tamara S. Wilson & Nathan D. Van Schmidt & Ruth Langridge, 2020. "Land-Use Change and Future Water Demand in California’s Central Coast," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Khaleel Muhammed & Aavudai Anandhi & Gang Chen & Kevin Poole, 2021. "Define–Investigate–Estimate–Map (DIEM) Framework for Modeling Habitat Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-30, October.
    6. Tilahun, B. & Abie, K. & Feyisa, A. & Amare, A., 2017. "Attitude and perceptions of local communities towards the conservation value of gibe Sheleko national park, Southwestern Ethiopia," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 3(2), June.
    7. Devan Allen McGranahan, 2014. "Ecologies of Scale: Multifunctionality Connects Conservation and Agriculture across Fields, Farms, and Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-31, July.

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