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Modelling past, present and future Ecosystem Services supply in a protected floodplain under land use and climate changes

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  • Gaglio, M.
  • Aschonitis, V.
  • Pieretti, L.
  • Santos, L.
  • Gissi, E.
  • Castaldelli, G.
  • Fano, E.A.

Abstract

The understanding of protection initiatives’ effects on the delivery of Ecosystem Services (ESs) is of paramount importance to attain sustainable management in Protected Areas (PAs). Protected floodplains provide important ESs to local populations such as water flow regulation and climate regulation through carbon storage. This study investigates the effects of biodiversity protection initiatives (i.e. declaration of Protected Areas – PAs) and the related spatio-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem services (ESs) in the Nature Reserve of Paul do Boquilobo – NRPB (Central Portugal). Special focus was made on climate mitigation (i.e. carbon storage and sequestration) and water-related (flood mitigation, water regulation and supply) ESs. The analysis was performed using InVEST model. Three dates of past LULC conditions were considered in the analysis (1967, 1990 and 2015). Moreover, two future alternative LULC scenarios for 2050 were designed (a “Business”- BUS and a “Naturalization”- NAT scenario). The BUS scenario considers a LULC distribution towards high productive agricultural systems, considering only a restricted central core of natural areas, while the NAT scenario considers full coverage of natural areas. The two future extreme LULC scenarios were analyzed considering both no climate change and climate change effects on water-related services based on the pessimistic rcp8.5 climatic scenario. The results showed that PA declaration of NRPB after 1980 increased carbon storage-sequestration and flood mitigation (higher water storage, lower recharge and runoff). The analysis of future LULC scenarios demonstrated that the complete renaturing in combination with climate change (reduction of precipitation, increase of temperature) may lead to severe reduction of recharge and runoff. These results indicate that conflicts may appear between specific water regulation services by the application of PA initiatives in places where groundwater resources are limited or minimum ecological flows in surface waters are difficult to be preserved.

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  • Gaglio, M. & Aschonitis, V. & Pieretti, L. & Santos, L. & Gissi, E. & Castaldelli, G. & Fano, E.A., 2019. "Modelling past, present and future Ecosystem Services supply in a protected floodplain under land use and climate changes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 23-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:403:y:2019:i:c:p:23-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.04.019
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    2. Gaglio, Mattias & Aschonitis, Vassilis & Castaldelli, Giuseppe & Fano, Elisa Anna, 2020. "Land use intensification rather than land cover change affects regulating services in the mountainous Adige river basin (Italy)," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. à vila-García, Daniela & Morató, Jordi & Pérez-Maussán, Ana I. & Santillán-Carvantes, Patricia & Alvarado, Jannice & Comín, Francisco A., 2020. "Impacts of alternative land-use policies on water ecosystem services in the Río Grande de Comitán-Lagos de Montebello watershed, Mexico," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Teresa Pinto-Correia & José Muñoz-Rojas & Martin Hvarregaard Thorsøe & Egon Bjørnshave Noe, 2019. "Governance Discourses Reflecting Tensions in a Multifunctional Land Use System in Decay; Tradition Versus Modernity in the Portuguese Montado," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Xiao Ouyang & Zhenbo Wang & Xiang Zhu, 2019. "Construction of the Ecological Security Pattern of Urban Agglomeration under the Framework of Supply and Demand of Ecosystem Services Using Bayesian Network Machine Learning: Case Study of the Changsh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Yanan Zhang & Ri Jin & Weihong Zhu & Da Zhang & Xiaoxue Zhang, 2020. "Impacts of Land Use Changes on Wetland Ecosystem Services in the Tumen River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-15, November.
    7. Feiyan Chen & Ling Li & Jiqiang Niu & Aiwen Lin & Shiyu Chen & Lin Hao, 2019. "Evaluating Ecosystem Services Supply and Demand Dynamics and Ecological Zoning Management in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-17, July.

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