Do Metropolitan Zoning Asymmetries Influence the Geography of Suburban Growth and Gentrification?

Zoning policies play a critical role in shaping the geography of urban and suburban development in the United States. Using data from the National Zoning and Land-Use Database and tract-level census data from 42 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, we classify metros into four zoning regime types based on the relative restrictiveness of urban and suburban land-use policies and compare trends in population growth and neighborhood change across these regimes. Our findings show that suburban areas have outpaced urban cores in population growth across all zoning configurations, with the most pronounced growth occurring in metros where restrictive urban zoning coexists with permissive suburban regulation. This growth is disproportionately concentrated in affluent suburban neighborhoods, suggesting a spatial sorting of access to resources and amenities. We also find that urban–suburban gentrification gaps are the smallest in these asymmetrical zoning regimes, suggesting that permissive suburban land use may facilitate spillover effects from constrained cores. These findings suggest that zoning asymmetries shape not only the geography of growth but also the spatial dynamics of gentrification. We argue for a metropolitan perspective on land-use governance to better understand the interconnected nature of suburbanization and the spatial expansion of gentrification.