Disturbance and Response Strategies of Carbon Sinks in Forest Land Due to Land Use Change: Taking Liushahe Town of Ningxiang as an Example

Forest land plays a vital role as a terrestrial carbon sink. Urbanization, particularly the conversion of forest land into agricultural and construction areas, has significantly affected the carbon sink capacity of forests. The protection of carbon sinks in forest land has become a critical issue in advancing the dual carbon strategy. Taking Liushahe Town as a case study, this study develops an integrated framework of analysis and response strategies, which encompass “land use change prediction, forest land carbon sink evaluation, and multi-objective optimization”. The purpose is to identify an optimal forest planning scheme that balances carbon sink capacity and biodiversity. The results indicate that: (1) Land use change substantially affects the extent of forest land in Liushahe Town, in which the area exhibits an initial increase followed by a decrease, and is projected to shrink to 89.88% of its 2021 level by 2041. (2) There are significant disparities in carbon sink performance among various forest land plots. The strategic elimination of inefficient plots and preservation of those with high carbon sink potential are key to enhancing the resilience of forest land to disturbances. (3) Multi-objective optimization planning schemes effectively reconcile carbon sinks and biodiversity, and enhance the synergistic effects of forest ecosystem services. Overall, this research provides practical guidance and methodological support for the protection of carbon sinks in forest land within township-scale spatial planning.