IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i7p1411-d1694934.html

A Supply–Demand-Driven Framework for Evaluating Service Effectiveness of University Campus Emergency Shelter: Evidence from Central Tianjin Under Earthquake Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Gao

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Yuqi Han

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Jiahao Zhang

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Yuanzhen Song

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Tianlin Zhang

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Fengliang Tang

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

  • Su Sun

    (School of Architecture, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China)

Abstract

Urban disaster risks are escalating, and university campus emergency shelters (UCESs) are key to alleviating the supply–demand imbalance in emergency shelter services (ESSs) within high-density central urban areas. However, existing studies lacked the measurement of UCES service effectiveness from a regional supply–demand perspective, limiting the ability to guide planning practices. Therefore, we focused on the capacity of UCESs to improve regional supply–demand relationships and developed a service effectiveness evaluation framework for UCESs in the central urban area of Tianjin under an earthquake scenario. We identified emergency shelter spaces within the campuses and developed a campus–city collaborative shelter capacity model to determine their service supply capacity. Then we quantified regional service demand driven by seismic risk. Finally, we quantified the service effectiveness of each UCES by constructing a service effectiveness evaluation model. Results showed that (1) the total shelter capacity and service coverage of 13 UCESs accounted for approximately 32.1% of the central district’s population and 67.5% of its land area, indicating their strong potential to provide large-scale ESSs. (2) Average seismic risk values ranged from 0.200 to 0.260, exhibiting the characteristic of being higher in the south and lower in the north. (3) Service effectiveness was classified into three levels—higher (1.150–1.257), medium (0.957–0.988), and lower (0.842–0.932)—corresponding to planning interventions that can be implemented based on them. This study aims to reveal differences between different UCESs to improve regional supply–demand relationships by evaluating their service effectiveness and supporting refined emergency management and planning decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Gao & Yuqi Han & Jiahao Zhang & Yuanzhen Song & Tianlin Zhang & Fengliang Tang & Su Sun, 2025. "A Supply–Demand-Driven Framework for Evaluating Service Effectiveness of University Campus Emergency Shelter: Evidence from Central Tianjin Under Earthquake Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-40, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:7:p:1411-:d:1694934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/7/1411/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/7/1411/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei Chen & Guofang Zhai & Chongqiang Ren & Yijun Shi & Jianxin Zhang, 2018. "Urban Resources Selection and Allocation for Emergency Shelters: In a Multi-Hazard Environment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Shaoqing Geng & Hanping Hou & Jiaxin Geng, 2021. "The Mechanism of Operation Effectiveness of Emergency Shelter Rescue Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Gerardo Benito & Michel Lang & Mariano Barriendos & M. Llasat & Felix Francés & Taha Ouarda & Varyl Thorndycraft & Yehouda Enzel & Andras Bardossy & Denis Coeur & Bernard Bobée, 2004. "Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(3), pages 623-643, March.
    4. Alan Murray, 2010. "Advances in location modeling: GIS linkages and contributions," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 335-354, September.
    5. Yang, Wenjie & Caunhye, Aakil M. & Zhuo, Maolin & Wang, Qingyi, 2024. "Integrated planning of emergency supply pre-positioning and victim evacuation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Lynda Djerbal & Ibtissam Khoudi & Nassima Alimrina & Bachir Melbouci & Ramdane Bahar, 2017. "Assessment and mapping of earthquake-induced landslides in Tigzirt City, Algeria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1859-1879, July.
    7. Maragno, Denis & Gaglio, Mattias & Robbi, Martina & Appiotti, Federica & Fano, Elisa Anna & Gissi, Elena, 2018. "Fine-scale analysis of urban flooding reduction from green infrastructure: An ecosystem services approach for the management of water flows," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 386(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Shaoqing Geng & Hanping Hou, 2021. "Demand Stratification and Prediction of Evacuees after Earthquakes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Reza Asriandi Ekaputra & Changkye Lee & Seong-Hoon Kee & Jurng-Jae Yee, 2022. "Emergency Shelter Geospatial Location Optimization for Flood Disaster Condition: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    10. Mikyung Kim & Kyeonghee Kim & Eunjeong Kim, 2021. "Problems and Implications of Shelter Planning Focusing on Habitability: A Case Study of a Temporary Disaster Shelter after the Pohang Earthquake in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Siqi Tang & Jianguo Wang & Yuanhao Xu & Shengbo Chen & Jiawang Zhang & Wutao Zhao & Guojian Wang, 2023. "Evaluation of Emergency Shelter Service Functions and Optimisation Suggestions—Case Study in the Songyuan City Central Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Yijun Shi & Guofang Zhai & Shutian Zhou & Yuwen Lu & Wei Chen & Jinyang Deng, 2019. "How Can Cities Respond to Flood Disaster Risks under Multi-Scenario Simulation? A Case Study of Xiamen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Xiaoran Liu & Luemiao Zhang & Jiliang Zhen & Wei Wang, 2024. "Planning for service space of medium- and long-term shelters based on multi-agent evacuation simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(14), pages 12769-12796, November.
    4. Alan T. Murray, 2016. "Maximal Coverage Location Problem," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 39(1), pages 5-27, January.
    5. Pedro V. Amaral & Alan T. Murray, 2016. "Equity in regional access to renal dialysis in Brazil," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1-2), pages 27-44, March.
    6. Jaekyoung Kim & Junsuk Kang, 2020. "Analysis of Flood Damage in the Seoul Metropolitan Government Using Climate Change Scenarios and Mitigation Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Ziang Cai & Mengmeng Gui & Rui Chen & Shan Wang & Dan Zhao & Peihao Peng & Juan Wang, 2024. "Identification and Prioritization of Thermal Environment Regulation Hotspots in Chengdu," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Eliş, Haluk & Tansel, Barbaros & Oğuz, Osman & Güney, Mesut & Kian, Ramez, 2021. "On guarding real terrains: The terrain guarding and the blocking path problems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Rima Almalla & Mina Di Marino, 2025. "Green Infrastructure's Potential Effects on Climate Change Adaptation in Cold‐Climate Countries: A Critical Literature Review," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 8110-8131, December.
    10. Anne-Katrin Schneider & Michael W. Strohbach & Mario App & Boris Schröder, 2019. "The ‘GartenApp’: Assessing and Communicating the Ecological Potential of Private Gardens," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Sadeghi, Mohammad & Yaghoubi, Saeed, 2024. "Optimization models for cloud seeding network design and operations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 1146-1167.
    12. Sandeepan Roy & Avijit Maji, 2019. "Optimization of High-Speed Railway Station Location Selection Based on Accessibility and Environmental Impact," ADBI Working Papers 953, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Alan T. Murray & Susan Burtner, 2023. "Physical distancing as an integral component of pandemic response," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Jie Zhou & Wenyi Liu & Yu Lin & Benyong Wei & Yaohui Liu, 2024. "The Evaluation and Comparison of Resilience for Shelters in Old and New Urban Districts: A Case Study in Kunming City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Junfei Chen & Juan Ji & Huimin Wang & Menghua Deng & Cong Yu, 2020. "Risk Assessment of Urban Rainstorm Disaster Based on Multi-Layer Weighted Principal Component Analysis: A Case Study of Nanjing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-19, July.
    16. Mel Oliveira Guirro & Gean Paulo Michel, 2023. "Hydrological and hydrodynamic reconstruction of a flood event in a poorly monitored basin: a case study in the Rolante River, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 723-743, May.
    17. Huaibin Wei & Liyuan Zhang & Jing Liu, 2022. "Hydrodynamic Modelling and Flood Risk Analysis of Urban Catchments under Multiple Scenarios: A Case Study of Dongfeng Canal District, Zhengzhou," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    18. Yiwen Zhai & Hong Jiao, 2025. "Risk Assessment of Urban Low-Temperature Vulnerability: Climate Resilience and Strategic Adaptations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Meiling Zhou & Xiuli Feng & Kaikai Liu & Chi Zhang & Lijian Xie & Xiaohe Wu, 2021. "An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, January.
    20. Yijun Shi & Guofang Zhai & Shutian Zhou & Yuwen Lu & Wei Chen & Hongbo Liu, 2018. "How Can Cities Adapt to a Multi-Disaster Environment? Empirical Research in Guangzhou (China)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:7:p:1411-:d:1694934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.