A Supply–Demand-Driven Framework for Evaluating Service Effectiveness of University Campus Emergency Shelter: Evidence from Central Tianjin Under Earthquake Scenarios

Urban disaster risks are escalating, and university campus emergency shelters (UCESs) are key to alleviating the supply–demand imbalance in emergency shelter services (ESSs) within high-density central urban areas. However, existing studies lacked the measurement of UCES service effectiveness from a regional supply–demand perspective, limiting the ability to guide planning practices. Therefore, we focused on the capacity of UCESs to improve regional supply–demand relationships and developed a service effectiveness evaluation framework for UCESs in the central urban area of Tianjin under an earthquake scenario. We identified emergency shelter spaces within the campuses and developed a campus–city collaborative shelter capacity model to determine their service supply capacity. Then we quantified regional service demand driven by seismic risk. Finally, we quantified the service effectiveness of each UCES by constructing a service effectiveness evaluation model. Results showed that (1) the total shelter capacity and service coverage of 13 UCESs accounted for approximately 32.1% of the central district’s population and 67.5% of its land area, indicating their strong potential to provide large-scale ESSs. (2) Average seismic risk values ranged from 0.200 to 0.260, exhibiting the characteristic of being higher in the south and lower in the north. (3) Service effectiveness was classified into three levels—higher (1.150–1.257), medium (0.957–0.988), and lower (0.842–0.932)—corresponding to planning interventions that can be implemented based on them. This study aims to reveal differences between different UCESs to improve regional supply–demand relationships by evaluating their service effectiveness and supporting refined emergency management and planning decisions.