IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i6p744-d1402353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Simulated Assessment of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in the Yanqi Basin under Different Development Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Jiang

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China)

  • Yilinuer Alifujiang

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China)

  • Pingping Feng

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China)

  • Ping Yang

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China)

  • Jianpeng Feng

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China)

Abstract

The most extensive carbon reservoir system on Earth is found in the vegetation and soil in terrestrial ecosystems, which are essential to preserving the stability of ecosystems. Land use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in terrestrial ecosystems significantly impact carbon storage (CS). Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the relationship between LUCC and CS to coordinate regional ecological conservation and industrial development. In this study, the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in land use and CS in the Yanqi Basin from 2000 to 2020 were revealed using the PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model and the CS module of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. This study also predicted the spatial and temporal evolution of CS and the response mechanism of the Yanqi Basin from four scenarios—natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050. This study shows the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the Yanqi Basin witnessed an expansion in cropland and construction land, the order of the land use dynamic degree which is as follows: construction land > cropland > woodland > unused land > water > grassland. At the same time, the CS exhibited a trend of growth that was followed by a decline, a cumulative decrease of 3.61 Tg. (2) Between 2020 and 2050, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased under the NDS and UDS. Meanwhile, grassland and woodland showed an expanding trend, and there was a decrease in cropland and construction land under the EPS; the CPS projected an increase in cropland to 3258.06 km 2 by 2050. (3) CS under the UDS is always the lowest, and CS under the EPS is the highest; moreover, by 2050, CS under the EPS is projected to increase by 1.18 Tg compared with that under the UDS. The spatial distribution of CS shows a high value in the western part of the region and a low value in the eastern part of the region, which is more in line with the historical spatial distribution. (4) The development of land by human activities is one of the major factors leading to the change of CS. The direct cause of the decrease in CS is the transformation of large areas of cropland and woodland into construction land. Therefore, woodlands must be protected to improve CS and prevent ecological degradation. At the same time, future land use planning in the Yanqi Basin needs to limit the conversion rate of various types of land, control the construction land, optimize the urban pattern, improve the regional CS level, adhere to the concept of striving to achieve carbon neutrality, and realize the sustainable development of the region to provide scientific suggestions for carrying out macro-decision making regarding land use planning in arid areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Jiang & Yilinuer Alifujiang & Pingping Feng & Ping Yang & Jianpeng Feng, 2024. "A Simulated Assessment of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in the Yanqi Basin under Different Development Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:6:p:744-:d:1402353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/6/744/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/6/744/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qinglong Ding & Yang Chen & Lingtong Bu & Yanmei Ye, 2021. "Multi-Scenario Analysis of Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Delta by Coupling FLUS with InVEST Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Christian P. Giardina & Michael G. Ryan, 2000. "Evidence that decomposition rates of organic carbon in mineral soil do not vary with temperature," Nature, Nature, vol. 404(6780), pages 858-861, April.
    3. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Chen, Rui, 2014. "A land use change model: Integrating landscape pattern indexes and Markov-CA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 1-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoxue Gai & Wenlu Zheng & Bonoua Faye & Hongyan Wang & Guoming Du, 2024. "Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Storage in Black Soil Area Under Topographic Gradient," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Ailing Sun & Haifeng Zhang & Xingsheng Xia & Xiaofan Ma & Yanqin Wang & Qiong Chen & Duqiu Fei & Yaozhong Pan, 2025. "Response of Ecosystem Services to Human Activities in Gonghe Basin of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Shanshan Meng & Jianli Ding & Jinjie Wang & Shuang Zhao & Zipeng Zhang, 2024. "Impacts of Changes in Oasis Farmland Patterns on Carbon Storage in Arid Zones—A Case Study of the Xinjiang Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-24, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiaqi Kang & Linlin Zhang & Qingyan Meng & Hantian Wu & Junyan Hou & Jing Pan & Jiahao Wu, 2025. "Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution Under Multiple Scenarios: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Beijing Using the PLUS-InVEST Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Ding, Helen & Nunes, Paulo A.L.D. & Teelucksingh, Sonja S., 2010. "European Forests and Carbon Sequestration Services: An Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts," Sustainable Development Papers 59397, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Hashem Dadashpoor & Neda Malekzadeh & Sadegh Saeidishirvan, 2023. "A typology of metropolitan spatial structure: a systematic review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(12), pages 13667-13693, December.
    4. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Dike Zhang & Jianpeng Wang & Ying Wang & Lei Xu & Liang Zheng & Bowen Zhang & Yuzhe Bi & Hui Yang, 2022. "Is There a Spatial Relationship between Urban Landscape Pattern and Habitat Quality? Implication for Landscape Planning of the Yellow River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Kun Zhang & Yu Wang & Ali Mamtimin & Yongqiang Liu & Lifang Zhang & Jiacheng Gao & Ailiyaer Aihaiti & Cong Wen & Meiqi Song & Fan Yang & Chenglong Zhou & Wen Huo, 2024. "Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variation in Carbon Storage in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, April.
    7. Yuhan Yu & Mengmeng Yu & Lu Lin & Jiaxin Chen & Dongjie Li & Wenting Zhang & Kai Cao, 2019. "National Green GDP Assessment and Prediction for China Based on a CA-Markov Land Use Simulation Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Muhammad Waseem Rasheed & Jialiang Tang & Abid Sarwar & Suraj Shah & Naeem Saddique & Muhammad Usman Khan & Muhammad Imran Khan & Shah Nawaz & Redmond R. Shamshiri & Marjan Aziz & Muhammad Sultan, 2022. "Soil Moisture Measuring Techniques and Factors Affecting the Moisture Dynamics: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-23, September.
    9. Post, Joachim & Krysanova, Valentina & Suckow, Felicitas & Mirschel, Wilfried & Rogasik, Jutta & Merbach, Ines, 2007. "Integrated eco-hydrological modelling of soil organic matter dynamics for the assessment of environmental change impacts in meso- to macro-scale river basins," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 93-109.
    10. Xiaolong Xu & Kun Li & Chuanrong Li & Fang Han & Junxin Zhao & Youheng Li, 2025. "Spatial and Chronological Assessment of Variations in Carbon Stocks in Land-Based Ecosystems in Shandong Province and Prospective Predictions (1990 to 2040)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Hong Ran & Yonggang Ma & Zhonglin Xu, 2022. "Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Shu An & Yifang Duan & Dengshuai Chen & Xiaoman Wu, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Drivers of Carbon Storage from a Sustainable Development Perspective: A Case Study of the Region along the Middle and Lower Yellow River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-19, July.
    13. Yiting Chen & Zhanbin Li & Peng Li & Yixin Zhang & Hailiang Liu & Jinjin Pan, 2022. "Impacts and Projections of Land Use and Demographic Changes on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in the Guanzhong Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Yi Lu & Xiangrong Wang & Yujing Xie & Kun Li & Yiyang Xu, 2016. "Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Wenting Huang & Long Guo & Ting Zhang & Ting Chen & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Xundi Zhang, 2024. "The Impact of Territorial Spatial Transformation on Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Suqian, East China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    16. Yaya Tian & Guanghui Jiang & Dingyang Zhou & Tao Zhou & Wenqiu Ma, 2022. "A Refined Rural Settlements Simulation Considering the Competition Relationship among the Internal Land Use Types: A Case Study of Pinggu District," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, April.
    17. Ge Shi & Nan Jiang & Lianqiu Yao, 2018. "Land Use and Cover Change during the Rapid Economic Growth Period from 1990 to 2010: A Case Study of Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    18. Shilei Wang & Yanbo Qu & Weiying Zhao & Mei Guan & Zongli Ping, 2022. "Evolution and Optimization of Territorial-Space Structure Based on Regional Function Orientation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, March.
    19. Hao Ye & Yongyong Song & Dongqian Xue, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-22, July.
    20. Junming Feng & Peizheng Hao & Jing Hao & Yinran Huang & Miao Yu & Kang Ding & Yang Zhou, 2025. "Impacts of Landscape Mosaic Patterns on Habitat Quality Using OLS and GWR Models in Taihang Mountains of Hebei Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-30, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:6:p:744-:d:1402353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.