IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i5p2389-d508376.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-Scenario Analysis of Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Delta by Coupling FLUS with InVEST Model

Author

Listed:
  • Qinglong Ding

    (Land Academy for National Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China)

  • Yang Chen

    (Land Academy for National Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China)

  • Lingtong Bu

    (School of Business, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China)

  • Yanmei Ye

    (Land Academy for National Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China)

Abstract

The past decades were witnessing unprecedented habitat degradation across the globe. It thus is of great significance to investigate the impacts of land use change on habitat quality in the context of rapid urbanization, particularly in developing countries. However, rare studies were conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of habitat quality under multiple future land use scenarios. In this paper, we established a framework by coupling the future land use simulation (FLUS) model with the Intergrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. We then analyzed the habitat quality change in Dongying City in 2030 under four scenarios: business as usual (BAU), fast cultivated land expansion scenario (FCLE), ecological security scenario (ES) and sustainable development scenario (SD). We found that the land use change in Dongying City, driven by urbanization and agricultural reclamation, was mainly characterized by the transfer of cultivated land, construction land and unused land; the area of unused land was significantly reduced. While the habitat quality in Dongying City showed a degradative trend from 2009 to 2017, it will be improved from 2017 to 2030 under four scenarios. The high-quality habitat will be mainly distributed in the Yellow River Estuary and coastal areas, and the areas with low-quality habitat will be concentrated in the central and southern regions. Multi-scenario analysis shows that the SD will have the highest habitat quality, while the BAU scenario will have the lowest. It is interesting that the ES scenario fails to have the highest capacity to protect habitat quality, which may be related to the excessive saline alkali land. Appropriate reclamation of the unused land is conducive to cultivated land protection and food security, but also improving the habitat quality and giving play to the versatility and multidimensional value of the agricultural landscape. This shows that the SD of comprehensive coordination of urban development, agricultural development and ecological protection is an effective way to maintain the habitat quality and biodiversity.

Suggested Citation

  • Qinglong Ding & Yang Chen & Lingtong Bu & Yanmei Ye, 2021. "Multi-Scenario Analysis of Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Delta by Coupling FLUS with InVEST Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:5:p:2389-:d:508376
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/5/2389/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/5/2389/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Polasky & Erik Nelson & Derric Pennington & Kris Johnson, 2011. "The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 219-242, February.
    2. Swinton, Scott M. & Lupi, Frank & Robertson, G. Philip & Hamilton, Stephen K., 2007. "Ecosystem services and agriculture: Cultivating agricultural ecosystems for diverse benefits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 245-252, December.
    3. Roshan Sharma & Udo Nehren & Syed Ajijur Rahman & Maximilian Meyer & Bhagawat Rimal & Gilang Aria Seta & Himlal Baral, 2018. "Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on Biodiversity in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Guillem, E.E. & Murray-Rust, D. & Robinson, D.T. & Barnes, A. & Rounsevell, M.D.A., 2015. "Modelling farmer decision-making to anticipate tradeoffs between provisioning ecosystem services and biodiversity," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 12-23.
    5. Huina Wang & Lina Tang & Quanyi Qiu & Huaxiang Chen, 2020. "Assessing the Impacts of Urban Expansion on Habitat Quality by Combining the Concepts of Land Use, Landscape, and Habitat in Two Urban Agglomerations in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yubin Liu & Mei Han & Min Wang & Chao Fan & Hang Zhao, 2022. "Habitat Quality Assessment in the Yellow River Delta Based on Remote Sensing and Scenario Analysis for Land Use/Land Cover," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Dong Chen & Rongrong Liu & Maoxian Zhou, 2023. "Delineation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Weiyuan County in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Auwalu Faisal Koko & Zexu Han & Yue Wu & Siyuan Zhang & Nan Ding & Jiayang Luo, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis and Prediction of Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a Cellular Automata and Novel Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model: A Study of Zhejiang Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Zhibo Lu & Qian Song & Jianyun Zhao & Shiru Wang, 2022. "Prediction and Evaluation of Ecosystem Service Value Based on Land Use of the Yellow River Source Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Xianglong Xing & Yang Liu & Ri Jin & Peng Zhang & Shouzheng Tong & Weihong Zhu, 2023. "Major Role of Natural Wetland Loss in the Decline of Wetland Habitat Quality—Spatio-Temporal Monitoring and Predictive Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Yi Wang & Long Zhang & Yuhong Song, 2022. "Study on the Construction of the Ecological Security Pattern of the Lancang River Basin (Yunnan Section) Based on InVEST-MSPA-Circuit Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Cheng Zhong & Yiming Bei & Hongliang Gu & Pengfei Zhang, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Services in the Wanhe Watershed Based on Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov and InVEST Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Zhouling Shao & Chunyan Chen & Yuanli Liu & Jie Cao & Guitang Liao & Zhengyu Lin, 2023. "Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Yanping Zhao & Jing Luo & Tao Li & Jian Chen & Yi Mi & Kuan Wang, 2023. "A Framework to Identify Priority Areas for Restoration: Integrating Human Demand and Ecosystem Services in Dongting Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, April.
    10. Dike Zhang & Jianpeng Wang & Ying Wang & Lei Xu & Liang Zheng & Bowen Zhang & Yuzhe Bi & Hui Yang, 2022. "Is There a Spatial Relationship between Urban Landscape Pattern and Habitat Quality? Implication for Landscape Planning of the Yellow River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Huiqing Han & Zhihua Su & Guangbin Yang, 2023. "Variations of Habitat Quality and Ecological Risk and Their Correlations with Landscape Metrics in a Robust Human Disturbed Coastal Region—Case Study: Xinggang Town in Southern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Hong Ran & Yonggang Ma & Zhonglin Xu, 2022. "Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Wen Li & Jianwei Geng & Jingling Bao & Wenxiong Lin & Zeyan Wu & Shuisheng Fan, 2023. "Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variations in Ecosystem Service Functions and Drivers in Anxi County Based on the InVEST Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-16, June.
    14. Yan Zhang & Xiaoyong Lu, 2022. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of Food Security in China and Its Obstacle Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Hao Ye & Yongyong Song & Dongqian Xue, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-22, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanwen Zhang & Yanqing Lang, 2022. "Quantifying and Analyzing the Responses of Habitat Quality to Land Use Change in Guangdong Province, China over the Past 40 Years," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Adam Pawlewicz & Wojciech Gotkiewicz & Katarzyna Brodzińska & Katarzyna Pawlewicz & Bartosz Mickiewicz & Paweł Kluczek, 2022. "Organic Farming as an Alternative Maintenance Strategy in the Opinion of Farmers from Natura 2000 Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Yongxin Liu & Yiting Wang & Yiwen Lin & Xiaoqing Ma & Shifa Guo & Qianru Ouyang & Caige Sun, 2023. "Habitat Quality Assessment and Driving Factors Analysis of Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Mengyao Li & Yong Zhou & Pengnan Xiao & Yang Tian & He Huang & Liang Xiao, 2021. "Evolution of Habitat Quality and Its Topographic Gradient Effect in Northwest Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020 Based on the InVEST Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Tao Li & Rui Bao & Ling Li & Mingfang Tang & Hongbing Deng, 2023. "Temporal and Spatial Changes of Habitat Quality and Their Potential Driving Factors in Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Valencia Torres, Angélica & Tiwari, Chetan & Atkinson, Samuel F., 2021. "Progress in ecosystem services research: A guide for scholars and practitioners," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Liu, Qi & Niu, Jun & Wood, Jeffrey D. & Kang, Shaozhong, 2022. "Spatial optimization of cropping pattern in the upper-middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    8. Khaleel Muhammed & Aavudai Anandhi & Gang Chen, 2022. "Comparing Methods for Estimating Habitat Suitability," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Sabrina Lai & Federica Leone & Corrado Zoppi, 2018. "Implementing Green Infrastructures beyond Protected Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Yajuan Chen & Qian Zhang & Wenping Liu & Zhenrong Yu, 2017. "Analyzing Farmers’ Perceptions of Ecosystem Services and PES Schemes within Agricultural Landscapes in Mengyin County, China: Transforming Trade-Offs into Synergies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-18, August.
    11. Haizhen Chen & Yi Chen & Xiaosong Chen & Xingzhong Zhang & Haowei Wu & Zhihui Li, 2022. "Impacts of Historical Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Services in Guangdong Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Xiaojuan Lin & Min Xu & Chunxiang Cao & Ramesh P. Singh & Wei Chen & Hongrun Ju, 2018. "Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Their Influence on the Ecosystem in Chengdu City, China during the Period of 1992–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, October.
    13. Turner, Katrine Grace & Anderson, Sharolyn & Gonzales-Chang, Mauricio & Costanza, Robert & Courville, Sasha & Dalgaard, Tommy & Dominati, Estelle & Kubiszewski, Ida & Ogilvy, Sue & Porfirio, Luciana &, 2016. "A review of methods, data, and models to assess changes in the value of ecosystem services from land degradation and restoration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 319(C), pages 190-207.
    14. Léa Tardieu, 2017. "The need for integrated spatial assessments in ecosystem service mapping," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 98(3), pages 173-200, December.
    15. Pengnan Xiao & Yong Zhou & Mengyao Li & Jie Xu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns of habitat quality and its topographic gradient effects of Hubei Province based on the InVEST model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6419-6448, July.
    16. Xiang Li & Zhaoshun Liu & Shujie Li & Yingxue Li, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use Impacts on Habitat Quality in Tianjin Based on the PLUS Model Coupled with the InVEST Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Vermunt, D.A. & Wojtynia, N. & Hekkert, M.P. & Van Dijk, J. & Verburg, R. & Verweij, P.A. & Wassen, M. & Runhaar, H., 2022. "Five mechanisms blocking the transition towards ‘nature-inclusive’ agriculture: A systemic analysis of Dutch dairy farming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Valbuena, Diego & Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee & Erenstein, Olaf & Teufel, Nils & Duncan, Alan & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Swain, Braja & Mekonnen, Kindu & Germaine, Ibro & Gérard, Bruno, 2015. "Identifying determinants, pressures and trade-offs of crop residue use in mixed smallholder farms in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 107-118.
    19. Smith, Helen F. & Sullivan, Caroline A., 2014. "Ecosystem services within agricultural landscapes—Farmers' perceptions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 72-80.
    20. Shah, Syed Mahboob & Liu, Gengyuan & Yang, Qing & Casazza, Marco & Agostinho, Feni & Giannetti, Biagio F., 2021. "Sustainability assessment of agriculture production systems in Pakistan: A provincial-scale energy-based evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:5:p:2389-:d:508376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.