Investigating the Heterogeneity Effects of Urban Morphology on Building Energy Consumption from a Spatio-Temporal Perspective Using Old Residential Buildings on a University Campus

The significant increase in building energy consumption poses a major challenge to environmental sustainability. In this process, urban morphology plays a pivotal role in shaping building energy consumption. However, its impact may exhibit latent heterogeneity due to differences in temporal resolution and spatial scales. For urban energy planning and energy consumption modeling, it is crucial to pinpoint when and where urban morphology parameters matter, an overlooked aspect in prior research. This study quantitatively explores this heterogeneity, utilizing a detailed dataset from old residential buildings within a university campus. Spatial lag models were employed for cross-modeling across various temporal and spatial dimensions. The results show that annual and seasonal spatial regression models perform best within a 150 m buffer zone. However, not all significant indicators fall within this range, suggesting that blindly applying the same range to all indicators may lead to inaccurate conclusions. Moreover, significant urban morphology indicators vary in quantity, category, and directionality. The green space ratio exhibits correlations with energy consumption in annual, summer, and winter periods within buffer zones of 150 m, 50~100 m, and 100 m, respectively. It notably displays a negative correlation with annual energy consumption but a positive correlation with winter energy consumption. To address this heterogeneity, this study proposes a three-tiered framework—macro-level project decomposition, establishing a key indicator library, and energy consumption comparisons, facilitating more targeted urban energy model and energy management decisions.