IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i8p1525-d1208225.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Analysis and Prediction of Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a Cellular Automata and Novel Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model: A Study of Zhejiang Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Auwalu Faisal Koko

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    International Center for Architecture and Urban Development Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Zexu Han

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    International Center for Architecture and Urban Development Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yue Wu

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    International Center for Architecture and Urban Development Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Siyuan Zhang

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    International Center for Architecture and Urban Development Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Nan Ding

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    International Center for Architecture and Urban Development Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

  • Jiayang Luo

    (College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    International Center for Architecture and Urban Development Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

Abstract

Urban land use/land cover (LULC) monitoring and prediction are vital for understanding the spatiotemporal change dynamics of future land uses. They provide the necessary data for effectively planning and managing natural land resources. In this study, we analyzed and simulated the changes in urban LULC within Zhejiang Province, a region in China experiencing rapid urbanization. By exploring the historical change dynamics of the region, we observed substantial transformations in the extent of built-up areas, forests, and agricultural land from 1995 to 2020. Specifically, the study area witnessed the expansion in urban built-up areas by approximately 6126.93 km 2 , while forests and agricultural land witnessed decreases of 3252.47 km 2 and 2885.13 km 2 , respectively. To predict the study area’s future LULC, a cellular automata (CA) model was utilized in combination with an advanced patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. This integrated approach allowed for multiple land use predictions based on different scenarios. Under the baseline scenario (BLS), it was projected that the area of urban expansion in Zhejiang Province would be approximately 4501.62 km 2 . However, under the scenario of cultivated land and ecological protection, i.e., CLPS and EPS, urban growth was observed to be 538.64 km 2 and 1776.16 km 2 , respectively. These findings indicate that the extent of built-up area development in Zhejiang Province is significantly reduced when the CLPS and EPS are implemented in comparison to the BLS. Therefore, policy interventions are crucial to protect agricultural land and conserve ecological areas. This research provides the scientific data needed for proper planning and serves as reference data for other regions with similar rapid urbanization.

Suggested Citation

  • Auwalu Faisal Koko & Zexu Han & Yue Wu & Siyuan Zhang & Nan Ding & Jiayang Luo, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis and Prediction of Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a Cellular Automata and Novel Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model: A Study of Zhejiang Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:8:p:1525-:d:1208225
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/8/1525/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/8/1525/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yue Wu & Zexu Han & Auwalu Faisal Koko & Siyuan Zhang & Nan Ding & Jiayang Luo, 2022. "Analyzing the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Land Use Expansion and Its Influencing Factors in Zhejiang Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Qinglong Ding & Yang Chen & Lingtong Bu & Yanmei Ye, 2021. "Multi-Scenario Analysis of Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Delta by Coupling FLUS with InVEST Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Feng Wang & Jianxiong Wu & Min Wu & Wen Zheng & Danwen Huang, 2021. "Has the Economic Structure Optimization in China’s Supply-Side Structural Reform Improved the Inclusive Green Total Factor Productivity?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-25, November.
    4. Zhiyuan Zhu & Jiajia Duan & Ruolan Li & Yongzhong Feng, 2022. "Spatial Evolution, Driving Mechanism, and Patch Prediction of Grain-Producing Cultivated Land in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    5. Houda Besser & Younes Hamed, 2021. "Environmental impacts of land management on the sustainability of natural resources in Oriental Erg Tunisia, North Africa," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11677-11705, August.
    6. Jinling Zhang & Ying Hou & Yifan Dong & Cun Wang & Weiping Chen, 2022. "Land Use Change Simulation in Rapid Urbanizing Regions: A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Guoqiang Tian & Xudong Chen, 2022. "Four Major Reforms in China Since the Modern Times," Springer Books, in: China’s Reform: History, Logic, and Future, chapter 0, pages 27-43, Springer.
    8. Xiaofang Sun & Guicai Li & Junbang Wang & Meng Wang, 2021. "Quantifying the Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Yellow River Basin while Accounting for Data Errors Based on GlobeLand30 Maps," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Zhou, Dingyang & Li, Zitong & Wang, Sifei & Tian, Yingying & Zhang, Yu & Jiang, Guanghui, 2021. "How does the newly urban residential built-up density differ across Chinese cities under rapid urban expansion? Evidence from residential FAR and statistical data from 2007 to 2016," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Linfeng Xu & Xuan Liu & De Tong & Zhixin Liu & Lirong Yin & Wenfeng Zheng, 2022. "Forecasting Urban Land Use Change Based on Cellular Automata and the PLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Hussam Al-Bilbisi, 2019. "Spatial Monitoring of Urban Expansion Using Satellite Remote Sensing Images: A Case Study of Amman City, Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, April.
    12. Zhongqi Deng & Qianyu Zhao & Helen X. H. Bao, 2020. "The Impact of Urbanization on Farmland Productivity: Implications for China’s Requisition–Compensation Balance of Farmland Policy," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhouling Shao & Chunyan Chen & Yuanli Liu & Jie Cao & Guitang Liao & Zhengyu Lin, 2023. "Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Dong Chen & Rongrong Liu & Maoxian Zhou, 2023. "Delineation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Weiyuan County in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Jinkai Li & Jueying Chen & Heguang Liu, 2021. "Sustainable Agricultural Total Factor Productivity and Its Spatial Relationship with Urbanization in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Huicai Yang & Jingtao Ma & Xinying Jiao & Guofei Shang & Haiming Yan, 2023. "Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Urban Construction Land Expansion along with Rapid Urbanization and Carbon Neutrality in Beijing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Zhiwei Deng & Bin Quan, 2022. "Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Soufiane Lahbouki & Abdelilah Meddich & Raja Ben-Laouane & Abdelkader Outzourhit & Luigi Pari, 2022. "Subsurface Water Retention Technology Promotes Drought Stress Tolerance in Field-Grown Tomato," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Dike Zhang & Jianpeng Wang & Ying Wang & Lei Xu & Liang Zheng & Bowen Zhang & Yuzhe Bi & Hui Yang, 2022. "Is There a Spatial Relationship between Urban Landscape Pattern and Habitat Quality? Implication for Landscape Planning of the Yellow River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-17, September.
    8. Ligang Lyu & Zhoubing Gao & Hualou Long & Xiaorui Wang & Yeting Fan, 2021. "Farmland Use Transition in a Typical Farming Area: The Case of Sihong County in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Shengqiang Yang & Donglin Li & Heping Liao & Lin Zhu & Miaomiao Zhou & Zhicong Cai, 2023. "Analysis of the Balance between Supply and Demand of Arable Land in China Based on Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Huanhuan Xiong & Xuejing Wang & Xinrui Hu, 2023. "Research on the Duality of China’s Marine Fishery Carbon Emissions and Its Coordination with Economic Development," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Harik, G. & Alameddine, I. & Zurayk, R. & El-Fadel, M., 2023. "Uncertainty in forecasting land cover land use at a watershed scale: Towards enhanced sustainable land management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    12. Wen Li & Jianwei Geng & Jingling Bao & Wenxiong Lin & Zeyan Wu & Shuisheng Fan, 2023. "Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variations in Ecosystem Service Functions and Drivers in Anxi County Based on the InVEST Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Ning He & Wenxian Guo & Hongxiang Wang & Long Yu & Siyuan Cheng & Lintong Huang & Xuyang Jiao & Wenxiong Chen & Haotong Zhou, 2023. "Temporal and Spatial Variations in Landscape Habitat Quality under Multiple Land-Use/Land-Cover Scenarios Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model in the Yangtze River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, July.
    14. Rao Ma & Wendong Lv & Yao Zhao, 2022. "The Impact of TMT Experience Heterogeneity on Enterprise Innovation Quality: Empirical Analysis on Chinese Listed Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Mengyang Hou & Yuanjie Deng & Shunbo Yao, 2020. "Spatial Agglomeration Pattern and Driving Factors of Grain Production in China since the Reform and Opening Up," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Chen Li & Xiangmu Jin & Junjun Zhi & Yao Luo & Mengni Li & Wangbing Liu, 2022. "Evaluating Whether Farmland Consolidation Is a Feasible Way to Achieve a Balance of Potential Crop Production in Southeastern Coastal China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, October.
    17. Huiqing Han & Zhihua Su & Guangbin Yang, 2023. "Variations of Habitat Quality and Ecological Risk and Their Correlations with Landscape Metrics in a Robust Human Disturbed Coastal Region—Case Study: Xinggang Town in Southern China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Jawed Mustafa & Fahad Awjah Almehmadi & Saeed Alqaed & Mohsen Sharifpur, 2022. "Building a Sustainable Energy Community: Design and Integrate Variable Renewable Energy Systems for Rural Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    19. Hong Ran & Yonggang Ma & Zhonglin Xu, 2022. "Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    20. Sun, Gebing & Li, Guozhi & Dilanchiev, Azer & Kazimova, Asli, 2023. "Promotion of green financing: Role of renewable energy and energy transition in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 769-775.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:8:p:1525-:d:1208225. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.