IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i5p937-d1130020.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Shi

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Peiji Shi

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Ziyang Wang

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Lirong Wang

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Yali Li

    (College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract

The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile area of natural ecology. With population growth and continuous expansion of urban scale, the ecosystem in the arid region is facing greater pressure. Scientific assessment and prediction of the value of ecosystem services in arid areas are necessary and of great significance for the sustainable development of regional ecological environments. In this paper, a parametric optimal geographic model is used to analyze the driving factors of ESV spatial dispersion in Jiuquan City as an example. The PLUS model is also used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, urban development, water constraints and ecological conservation, based on the historical change pattern of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV). The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the plowland, water and construction land area in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend, while other land use types showed a decreasing trend. ESV has increased from CNY 139.394 billion to CNY 142.642 billion. The expansion of plowland and water area was the main reason for the increase in ESV. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation are the main driving factors of spatial differentiation of ESV in Jiuquan City. The interaction of natural and human factors enhances the explanatory power of each factor to the spatial differentiation of ESV. In 2035, the ESV in four development scenarios in Jiuquan City showed an upward trend, and the ESV of the ecological protection scenario was the highest, which was the best mode to realize a sustainable development in Jiuquan City in the future. This study can provide scientific basis and decision-making basis for Jiuquan City to formulate sustainable development strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Shi & Peiji Shi & Ziyang Wang & Lirong Wang & Yali Li, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:5:p:937-:d:1130020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/937/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/5/937/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhengxin Ji & Hejie Wei & Dong Xue & Mengxue Liu & Enxiang Cai & Weiqiang Chen & Xinwei Feng & Jiwei Li & Jie Lu & Yulong Guo, 2021. "Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Mansour, Shawky & Al-Belushi, Mohammed & Al-Awadhi, Talal, 2020. "Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Ziyang Wang & Peiji Shi & Xuebin Zhang & Huali Tong & Weiping Zhang & Yue Liu, 2021. "Research on Landscape Pattern Construction and Ecological Restoration of Jiuquan City Based on Ecological Security Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & Anderson, Sharolyn & Sutton, Paul, 2017. "The future value of ecosystem services: Global scenarios and national implications," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 289-301.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen Zhang & Zhanqi Wang & Hanwen Du & Haiyang Li, 2025. "Response of Ecosystem Service Value to LULC Under Multi-Scenario Simulation Considering Policy Spatial Constraints: A Case Study of an Ecological Barrier Region in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, March.
    2. Xiang Li & Jiang Zhu & Tao Liu & Xiangdong Yin & Jiangchun Yao & Hao Jiang & Bing Bu & Jianlong Yan & Yixuan Li & Zhangcheng Chen, 2023. "Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Maomao Zhang & Enqing Chen & Cheng Zhang & Chen Liu & Jianxing Li, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-23, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haoyue Gao & Tianling Qin & Qinghua Luan & Jianming Feng & Xiuyan Zhang & Yuhui Yang & Shu Xu & Jie Lu, 2024. "Characteristics Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Evolution in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River Based on Improved FLUS Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Lu Han & Yanbo Qu & Shufeng Liang & Luyan Shi & Min Zhang & Haiyan Jia, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Land Ecological Security and Optimization Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Delta in China Toward Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Yue Wang & Dengjiao Liao & Bin Yan & Xinhai Lu, 2023. "Employment of Land-Expropriated Farmers: The Effects of Land Expropriation and Gender Difference," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, October.
    4. Yan Zhou & Tao Chen & Jingjing Wang & Xiaolan Xu, 2023. "Analyzing the Factors Driving the Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in the Liangzi Lake Basin—A GeoDetector-Based Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Qing Liu & Dongdong Yang & Lei Cao & Bruce Anderson, 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Shunqian Gao & Liu Yang & Hongzan Jiao, 2022. "Changes in and Patterns of the Tradeoffs and Synergies of Production-Living-Ecological Space: A Case Study of Longli County, Guizhou Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Milad Asadi & Amir Oshnooei-Nooshabadi & Samira-Sadat Saleh & Fattaneh Habibnezhad & Sonia Sarafraz-Asbagh & John Lodewijk Van Genderen, 2022. "Urban Sprawl Simulation Mapping of Urmia (Iran) by Comparison of Cellular Automata–Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    8. Anna M. Hansson & Eja Pedersen & Niklas P. E. Karlsson & Stefan E. B. Weisner, 2023. "Barriers and drivers for sustainable business model innovation based on a radical farmland change scenario," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 8083-8106, August.
    9. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Di Pirro, E. & Sallustio, L. & Capotorti, G. & Marchetti, M. & Lasserre, B., 2021. "A scenario-based approach to tackle trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and land use pressure in Central Italy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 448(C).
    11. Chang You & Hongjiao Qu & Shidong Zhang & Luo Guo, 2024. "Assessment of Uncertainties in Ecological Risk Based on the Prediction of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Evolution," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, April.
    12. Yi Wang & Jun Wang & Beibei Hao & Siyi Zhang & Junwei Ding & Bin He, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Future Land Use in the Beijiang River Basin Under Multidimensional Ecological Constraints," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Benjamin Stuch & Joseph Alcamo, 2024. "Systems methods for analyzing trade-offs between food security and conserving biodiversity," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 16-29, March.
    14. Luo, Xiangyu & Jiang, Peng & Yang, Jingyi & Jin, Jing & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Simulating PM2.5 removal in an urban ecosystem based on the social-ecological model framework," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    15. Hebing Zhang & Qingqing Yan & Fangfang Xie & Shouchen Ma, 2023. "Evaluation and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Security Based on a CA-Markov Model in Overlapped Area of Crop and Coal Production," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Liquan Xu & Zhentian Zhang & Gangyi Tan & Junqing Zhou & Yang Wang, 2022. "Analysis on the Evolution and Resilience of Ecological Network Structure in Wuhan Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Zhao Wang & Tao Li & Shan Yang & Daili Zhong, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamic and Structural Characteristics of Land Use/Cover Change Based on a Complex Network: A Case Study of the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, June.
    18. Luoman Pu & Jiuchun Yang & Lingxue Yu & Changsheng Xiong & Fengqin Yan & Yubo Zhang & Shuwen Zhang, 2021. "Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-21, January.
    19. Yaya Tian & Guanghui Jiang & Dingyang Zhou & Tao Zhou & Wenqiu Ma, 2022. "A Refined Rural Settlements Simulation Considering the Competition Relationship among the Internal Land Use Types: A Case Study of Pinggu District," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, April.
    20. Tingke Wu & Shiwei Lu & Yichen Ding, 2025. "Ecological Security Evaluation System Integrated with Circuit Theory for Regional Ecological Security Pattern Construction: A Coordinated Study of Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:5:p:937-:d:1130020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.