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The future value of ecosystem services: Global scenarios and national implications


  • Kubiszewski, Ida
  • Costanza, Robert
  • Anderson, Sharolyn
  • Sutton, Paul


We estimated the future value of ecosystem services in monetary units for 4 alternative global land use and management scenarios based on the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) scenarios to the year 2050. We used previous estimates of the per biome values of ecosystem services in 2011 as the basis for comparison. We mapped projected land-use for 16biomes at 1km2 resolution globally for each scenario. This, combined with differences in land management for each scenario, created estimates of global ecosystem services values that also allowed for examinations of individual countries. Results show that under different scenarios the global value of ecosystem services can decline by $51trillion/yr or increase by USD $30trillion/yr. In addition to the global values, we report totals for all countries and maps for a few example countries. Results show that adopting a set of policies similar to those required to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals, would greatly enhance ecosystem services, human wellbeing and sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & Anderson, Sharolyn & Sutton, Paul, 2017. "The future value of ecosystem services: Global scenarios and national implications," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 289-301.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:26:y:2017:i:pa:p:289-301
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.05.004

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Santos-Martín, F. & Zorrilla-Miras, P. & Palomo, I. & Montes, C. & Benayas, J. & Maes, J., 2019. "Protecting nature is necessary but not sufficient for conserving ecosystem services: A comprehensive assessment along a gradient of land-use intensity in Spain," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-51.
    2. Gashaw, Temesgen & Tulu, Taffa & Argaw, Mekuria & Worqlul, Abeyou W. & Tolessa, Terefe & Kindu, Mengistie, 2018. "Estimating the impacts of land use/land cover changes on Ecosystem Service Values: The case of the Andassa watershed in the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PA), pages 219-228.
    3. Costanza, Robert & de Groot, Rudolf & Braat, Leon & Kubiszewski, Ida & Fioramonti, Lorenzo & Sutton, Paul & Farber, Steve & Grasso, Monica, 2017. "Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 28(PA), pages 1-16.
    4. Gissi, Elena & Garramone, Vito, 2018. "Learning on ecosystem services co-production in decision-making from role-playing simulation: Comparative analysis from Southeast Europe," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PB), pages 228-253.
    5. Sandhu, Harpinder & Clarke, Beverley & Baring, Ryan & Anderson, Sharolyn & Fisk, Claire & Dittmann, Sabine & Walker, Stewart & Sutton, Paul & Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert, 2018. "Scenario planning including ecosystem services for a coastal region in South Australia," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PA), pages 194-207.
    6. Buckwell, Andrew & Fleming, Christopher & Smart, James & Mackey, Brendan & Ware, Daniel & Hallgren, Willow & Sahin, Oz & Nalau, Johanna, 2018. "Valuing aggregated ecosystem services at a national and regional scale for Vanuatu using a remotely operable, rapid assessment methodology," 2018 Conference (62nd), February 7-9, 2018, Adelaide, Australia 273524, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Liu, Peng & Li, Wenwen & Yu, Yang & Tang, Ruchun & Guo, Xianming & Wang, Bin & Yang, Biao & Zhang, Li, 2019. "How much will cash forest encroachment in rainforests cost? A case from valuation to payment for ecosystem services in China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Thomas Elliot & Javier Babí Almenar & Samuel Niza & Vânia Proença & Benedetto Rugani, 2019. "Pathways to Modelling Ecosystem Services within an Urban Metabolism Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, May.

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