IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i1p207-d1029715.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Security Based on a CA-Markov Model in Overlapped Area of Crop and Coal Production

Author

Listed:
  • Hebing Zhang

    (School of Surverying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 456400, China)

  • Qingqing Yan

    (School of Surverying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 456400, China)

  • Fangfang Xie

    (School of Surverying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 456400, China)

  • Shouchen Ma

    (School of Surverying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 456400, China)

Abstract

Overlapped areas of crop and coal production are responsible for national food security and mineral resource supply. However, long-term coal mining and urban and rural construction have continuously impacted the structure and functions of the original agricultural landscape ecosystem in the area and brought serious ecological security problems. On the basis of the results of remote sensing image classification of the Zhaogu mining area, this study explores the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the landscape pattern and the evolution of ecological security and predicts the landscape ecological security status in 2029. Research results show that the evolution of the landscape pattern in the study area manifests obvious stage characteristics: from 2004 to 2014, the landscape pattern developed in the direction of fragmentation, irregularity, heterogeneity, and low connectivity; after 2014, the landscape pattern showed continuity, regularization, and high connectivity trends. By comparing the landscape ecological security of the study area from 2004 to 2019, a temporal change characteristic of first deteriorating and then gradually improving can be observed. By analyzing the changes in the distribution of the security status in the study area on a spatial scale, it can be found that the proportion of unsafe areas is significantly reduced in 2019 due to the influence of land remediation and reclamation. By constructing a CA-Markov prediction model with both spatial and quantitative advantages, the prediction results show that the degree of landscape fragmentation in the study area will be reduced, and the connectivity will be enhanced between 2019 and 2029. The shape of landscape patches tends to be regular, and the landscape heterogeneity will be enhanced. Overall, the landscape ecological security situation will continue to improve. The results could provide reference for ecological protection and related land reclamation planning of the mine area.

Suggested Citation

  • Hebing Zhang & Qingqing Yan & Fangfang Xie & Shouchen Ma, 2023. "Evaluation and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Security Based on a CA-Markov Model in Overlapped Area of Crop and Coal Production," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:1:p:207-:d:1029715
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/207/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/1/207/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guan, DongJie & Li, HaiFeng & Inohae, Takuro & Su, Weici & Nagaie, Tadashi & Hokao, Kazunori, 2011. "Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3761-3772.
    2. Dong Wang & Xiang Ji & Cheng Li & Yaxi Gong, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Variations of Landscape Ecological Risks in a Resource-Based City under Transformation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Mansour, Shawky & Al-Belushi, Mohammed & Al-Awadhi, Talal, 2020. "Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Gang Fu & Wei Wang & Junsheng Li & Nengwen Xiao & Yue Qi, 2021. "Prediction and Selection of Appropriate Landscape Metrics and Optimal Scale Ranges Based on Multi-Scale Interaction Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Li, Yangfan & Sun, Xiang & Zhu, Xiaodong & Cao, Huhua, 2010. "An early warning method of landscape ecological security in rapid urbanizing coastal areas and its application in Xiamen, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(19), pages 2251-2260.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fengyu Wang & Shuai Tong & Yun Chu & Tianlong Liu & Xiang Ji, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Key Areas of Territorial Ecological Restoration in Resource-Exhausted Cities: A Case Study of Jiawang District, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Song Yu & Lulu Yang & Zhenjiang Song & Wenbo Li & Yongmei Ye & Bin Liu, 2023. "Measurement of Land Ecological Security in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Base on the PSR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Shanshan Wang & Qiting Zuo & Kefa Zhou & Jinlin Wang & Wei Wang, 2023. "Predictions of Land Use/Land Cover Change and Landscape Pattern Analysis in the Lower Reaches of the Tarim River, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Selamawit Haftu Gebresellase & Zhiyong Wu & Huating Xu & Wada Idris Muhammad, 2023. "Scenario-Based LULC Dynamics Projection Using the CA–Markov Model on Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Cunha, Elias Rodrigues da & Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães & Silva, Richarde Marques da & Bacani, Vitor Matheus & Pott, Arnildo, 2021. "Future scenarios based on a CA-Markov land use and land cover simulation model for a tropical humid basin in the Cerrado/Atlantic forest ecotone of Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Yaxi Gong & Xiang Ji & Yuan Zhang & Shanshan Cheng, 2023. "Spatial Vitality Evaluation and Coupling Regulation Mechanism of a Complex Ecosystem in Lixiahe Plain Based on Multi-Source Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-32, January.
    5. Jiaxing Cui & Xuesong Kong & Jing Chen & Jianwei Sun & Yuanyuan Zhu, 2021. "Spatially Explicit Evaluation and Driving Factor Identification of Land Use Conflict in Yangtze River Economic Belt," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Dan Yu & Dongyan Wang & Wenbo Li & Shuhan Liu & Yuanli Zhu & Wenjun Wu & Yongheng Zhou, 2018. "Decreased Landscape Ecological Security of Peri-Urban Cultivated Land Following Rapid Urbanization: An Impediment to Sustainable Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Qing Liu & Dongdong Yang & Lei Cao & Bruce Anderson, 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Tropics: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-24, February.
    8. Zhang, Zuo & Li, Jiaming, 2022. "Spatial suitability and multi-scenarios for land use: Simulation and policy insights from the production-living-ecological perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Abdulaziz I. Almulhim & Simon Elias Bibri & Ayyoob Sharifi & Shakil Ahmad & Khalid Mohammed Almatar, 2022. "Emerging Trends and Knowledge Structures of Urbanization and Environmental Sustainability: A Regional Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    10. Yangyang Yuan & Yuchen Yang & Ruijun Wang & Yuning Cheng, 2022. "Predicting Rural Ecological Space Boundaries in the Urban Fringe Area Based on Bayesian Network: A Case Study in Nanjing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, October.
    11. Katarzyna Kocur-Bera & Anna Lyjak, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Agricultural Use of Land After Poland’s Accession to the EU," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 517-533.
    12. Milad Asadi & Amir Oshnooei-Nooshabadi & Samira-Sadat Saleh & Fattaneh Habibnezhad & Sonia Sarafraz-Asbagh & John Lodewijk Van Genderen, 2022. "Urban Sprawl Simulation Mapping of Urmia (Iran) by Comparison of Cellular Automata–Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Xiangnan Fan & Yuning Cheng & Fangqi Tan & Tianyi Zhao, 2022. "Construction and Optimization of the Ecological Security Pattern in Liyang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-28, September.
    14. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    15. Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Seyed Mostafa Hedayatnezhad Kashi & Saba Baharvandi, 2022. "The Assessment of Ecological Livability for Agricultural, Pasture, Forestry, Residential, and Tourism Activities; Study Area: North of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-26, October.
    16. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    17. Jing Yang & Feng Shi & Yizhong Sun & Jie Zhu, 2019. "A Cellular Automata Model Constrained by Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Urban Development Strategy for Simulating Land-use Change: A Case Study in Nanjing City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    19. Shangkun Yu & Yi Miao & Mengcheng Li & Xiaoming Ding & Chengxin Wang & Wangsheng Dou, 2022. "Theoretical Development Model for Rural Settlements against Rural Shrinkage: An Empirical Study on Pingyin County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    20. Li, Sheng & Nadolnyak, Denis & Hartarska, Valentina, 2019. "Agricultural land conversion: Impacts of economic and natural risk factors in a coastal area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 380-390.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:1:p:207-:d:1029715. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.