IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/apjors/v7y2023i4d10.1007_s41685-023-00301-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling differential urban growth dynamics for growth decentralisation: a study on Tiruchirappalli metropolitan and sub-tier towns, India

Author

Listed:
  • K. Prakash

    (Bharathidasan University)

  • R. Jegankumar

    (Bharathidasan University)

  • R. S. Libina

    (Bharathidasan University)

Abstract

Urbanisation requires careful planning and monitoring to overcome challenges like overpopulation, inadequate housing, and sanitation. Significant investments are necessary to reorganise urban areas or promote sub-tier urban centres as an approach of growth decentralisation. This study examined urban growth dynamics in Tiruchirappalli and surrounding sub-tier urban centres within a 40-km radius between 1996, 2008, and 2020. Researchers produced highly accurate land use/cover maps using unsupervised classification techniques and simulated these maps using a CA–Markov model powered by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that uses Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm to predict land use changes for the years 2035 and 2050. Statistical methods have quantified land use/cover change rate, growth deviation, and degree of freedom/diversity to explain urban built-up growth dynamics. The CA-Markov simulations show that urban built-up areas are likely to remain the major land use for potential growth, with 174.9 sq. km and 209.3 sq. km in 2035 and 2050, respectively. Urban built-up was the leading class in terms of growth between 1996–2008 and 2008–2020, and growth deviation was high in multiple zones of Tiruchirappalli and Thiruverumbur, indicating significant variation between observed and expected growth rates. The degree of disparity showed a decreasing trend between 1996–2008 and 2008–2020, with higher disparity values recorded in Tiruchirappalli and Thiruverumbur than other urban centres due to the global recession and fiscal policies. At the current rate of growth, Tiruchirappalli urban may experience a significant loss of agricultural land and environmental damage from urban pollutants in surrounding water bodies and fertile lands. The study emphasizes mutual growth of sub-tier urban centres, as suggested by the Indian planning body (NITI Aayog), is a significant intervention to address the negative impacts of urban spatial growth.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Prakash & R. Jegankumar & R. S. Libina, 2023. "Modelling differential urban growth dynamics for growth decentralisation: a study on Tiruchirappalli metropolitan and sub-tier towns, India," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 1191-1221, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:7:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s41685-023-00301-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00301-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41685-023-00301-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41685-023-00301-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sabyasachi Tripathi, 2021. "How does urbanization affect the human development index? A cross-country analysis," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 1053-1080, October.
    2. Yaolong Zhao & Ke Zhang & Yingchun Fu & Hong Zhang, 2012. "Examining Land-Use/Land-Cover Change in the Lake Dianchi Watershed of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau of Southwest China with Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: 1974–2008," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Guan, DongJie & Li, HaiFeng & Inohae, Takuro & Su, Weici & Nagaie, Tadashi & Hokao, Kazunori, 2011. "Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3761-3772.
    4. Vilém Pařil & Barbora Ondrůšková & Aneta Krajíčková & Zelenáková Petra, 2022. "The cost of suburbanization: spending on environmental protection," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 2002-2021, October.
    5. Arindam Biswas & Tetsuo Kidokoro & Fumihiko Seta, 2019. "Metropolitan governance and local decentralisation in India: case of Chennai and Kolkata metropolitan regions," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 675-696, October.
    6. Francisco J. Goerlich Gisbert & Isidro Cantarino Martí & Eric Gielen, 2017. "Clustering cities through urban metrics analysis," Journal of Urban Design, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 689-708, September.
    7. Georges A. Tanguay & Juste Rajaonson & Jean-François Lefebvre & Paul Lanoie, 2009. "Measuring the Sustainability of Cities: A Survey-Based Analysis of the Use of Local Indicators," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-02, CIRANO.
    8. Sunil Kumar & Swagata Ghosh & Sultan Singh, 2022. "Polycentric urban growth and identification of urban hot spots in Faridabad, the million-plus metropolitan city of Haryana, India: a zonal assessment using spatial metrics and GIS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8246-8286, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. K. Prakash & R. Jegankumar & R. S. Libina, 2023. "Assessment of differential urbanization using spatial entropy model for Tiruchirappalli urban and tier towns, India," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Miriam Müller & Oscar Reutter, 2017. "Vision Development towards a Sustainable North Rhine-Westphalia 2030 in a Science-Practice-Dialogue," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-27, June.
    4. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    5. Li, Sheng & Nadolnyak, Denis & Hartarska, Valentina, 2019. "Agricultural land conversion: Impacts of economic and natural risk factors in a coastal area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 380-390.
    6. Sarah Hasan & Wenzhong Shi & Xiaolin Zhu & Sawaid Abbas & Hafiz Usman Ahmed Khan, 2020. "Future Simulation of Land Use Changes in Rapidly Urbanizing South China Based on Land Change Modeler and Remote Sensing Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Zhang, Chunxiao & Chen, Min & Li, Rongrong & Fang, Chaoyang & Lin, Hui, 2016. "What's going on about geo-process modeling in virtual geographic environments (VGEs)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 319(C), pages 147-154.
    8. Chen, Na & Yang, Huan, 2024. "From rural to urban: Clan, urbanization and trust," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Yasmin Bani & Ali Abdulkadir Ali Gutale & Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim & Syamsul Herman Mohammad Afandi, 2024. "A Threshold Effect of Financial Development on Natural Resource Rents-Sustainable Human Development Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 63-79, November.
    11. Fatih Sari, 2024. "Predicting future opportunities and threats of land-use changes on beekeeping activities in Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(9), pages 22389-22420, September.
    12. Nooshin Karimi Alavijeh & Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri & Parisa Esmaeili & Fatemeh Dehdar, 2024. "Asymmetric Impacts of Renewable Energy on Human Development: Exploring the Role of Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth, and Urbanization in European Union Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(4), pages 17188-17212, December.
    13. Marie-Christine Therrien & Juste Rajaonson & Georges A. Tanguay, 2011. "Sustainable Tourism Indicators: Selection Criteria for Policy Implementation and Scientific Recognition," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-60, CIRANO.
    14. Courage Kamusoko & Yukio Wada & Toru Furuya & Shunsuke Tomimura & Mitsuru Nasu & Khamma Homsysavath, 2013. "Simulating Future Forest Cover Changes in Pakxeng District, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR): Implications for Sustainable Forest Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Bogdan Dima & Ştefana Maria Dima & Adriana Tiron Tudor, 2024. "Societal sustainable development and long‐run economic growth: How do we stand?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 4222-4249, August.
    16. Hadi Eskandari Damaneh & Hassan Khosravi & Khalil Habashi & Hamed Eskandari Damaneh & John P. Tiefenbacher, 2022. "The impact of land use and land cover changes on soil erosion in western Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2185-2205, February.
    17. Hebing Zhang & Qingqing Yan & Fangfang Xie & Shouchen Ma, 2023. "Evaluation and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Security Based on a CA-Markov Model in Overlapped Area of Crop and Coal Production," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, January.
    18. Elsayed A. Abdelsamie & Abdel-rahman A. Mustafa & Abdelbaset S. El-Sorogy & Hanafey F. Maswada & Sattam A. Almadani & Mohamed S. Shokr & Ahmed I. El-Desoky & Jose Emilio Meroño de Larriva, 2024. "Current and Potential Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Scenarios in Dry Lands Using a CA-Markov Simulation Model and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) Method: A Cloud-Based Google Earth Engine (," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-19, December.
    19. Huirong Yu, 2022. "A multi-scale approach to mapping conservation priorities for rural China based on landscape context," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 10803-10828, September.
    20. Hazem T. Abd El-Hamid & Hoda Nour-Eldin & Nazih Y. Rebouh & Ahmed M. El-Zeiny, 2022. "Past and Future Changes of Land Use/Land Cover and the Potential Impact on Ecosystem Services Value of Damietta Governorate, Egypt," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:7:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s41685-023-00301-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.