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Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China

Author

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  • Zhengxin Ji

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Hejie Wei

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Dong Xue

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Mengxue Liu

    (Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Enxiang Cai

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Weiqiang Chen

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Xinwei Feng

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Jiwei Li

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Jie Lu

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

  • Yulong Guo

    (College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
    Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China)

Abstract

Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhengxin Ji & Hejie Wei & Dong Xue & Mengxue Liu & Enxiang Cai & Weiqiang Chen & Xinwei Feng & Jiwei Li & Jie Lu & Yulong Guo, 2021. "Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:7:p:3552-:d:526306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Benjamin Stuch & Joseph Alcamo, 2024. "Systems methods for analyzing trade-offs between food security and conserving biodiversity," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 16-29, March.
    3. Lu Han & Yanbo Qu & Shufeng Liang & Luyan Shi & Min Zhang & Haiyan Jia, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Land Ecological Security and Optimization Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Delta in China Toward Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-21, November.
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    5. Shuo Yang & Hao Su, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Haojun Xie & Quan Sun & Wei Song, 2024. "Exploring the Ecological Effects of Rural Land Use Changes: A Bibliometric Overview," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, February.
    7. Jing Shi & Peiji Shi & Ziyang Wang & Lirong Wang & Yali Li, 2023. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Yongjun Du & Xiaolong Li & Xinlin He & Xiaoqian Li & Guang Yang & Dongbo Li & Wenhe Xu & Xiang Qiao & Chen Li & Lu Sui, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation and Trade-Off Analysis of Ecological Service Value in the Manas River Basin Based on Land Use Optimization in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-31, May.
    9. Hejie Wei & Jiaxin Zheng & Dong Xue & Xiaobin Dong & Mengxue Liu & Yali Zhang, 2022. "Identifying the Relationship between Livelihoods and Land Ecosystem Services Using a Coupled Model: A Case Study in the “One River and Two Tributaries” Region of Tibet," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, August.
    10. Yaohan Cheng & Chengxiu Li & Shuting He & Ling Li & Liangyun Dong & Xiuli Wang, 2023. "Coordinated Development Path of Cultivated Land Utilization in Henan Section of the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.

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