IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i12p619-d1008258.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Three Major Crises and Asian Emerging Market Informational Efficiency: A Case of Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 Index

Author

Listed:
  • Bahrawar Said

    (Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA)

  • Shafiq Ur Rehman

    (Department of Commerce and Management Sciences, University of Malakand, Dir Lower 18800, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Wajid Raza

    (Department of Management Sciences, Shaheed Benazir Bhutto University Sheringal, Dir Upper 18050, Pakistan)

Abstract

Periods of economic turmoil distort the ability of stock prices to reflect the available information. In the last three decades, emerging markets experienced numerous crises. The major three of them are the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998), Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009) and Global Pandemic Crisis (2020–2022). The nature, intensity and duration of these crises differ significantly. This study investigates the impact of these varying natures of crises on the level of informational efficiency. The empirical evidence is based on the emerging stock market of Pakistan. Index-level data are collected from Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 Index for the period 1995–2022. The rebalancing is done each year to ensure that the final sample is composed of only 100 stocks with the highest market capitalization. The results based on the Variance Ratio (VR) test show that informational efficiency is time-varying. Among all the three crises, informational efficiency deters more in the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit the market efficiency recovers soon. This implies that the arbitrage opportunity is marginal in crisis periods, while investors prefer to invest in post-crisis periods. Finally, our results reveal that among all the crises, investors were more informed in the Global Financial Crisis. Investors must keep a close eye on market regimes for designing investment solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahrawar Said & Shafiq Ur Rehman & Muhammad Wajid Raza, 2022. "Three Major Crises and Asian Emerging Market Informational Efficiency: A Case of Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:619-:d:1008258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/12/619/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/12/619/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Pop, Adrian, 2015. "Risk and ethical investment: Empirical evidence from Dow Jones Islamic indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 33-56.
    2. Davidson, Russell & Flachaire, Emmanuel, 2008. "The wild bootstrap, tamed at last," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 162-169, September.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    4. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    5. Hull, Matthew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Do emerging markets become more efficient as they develop? Long memory persistence in equity indices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 45-61.
    6. Wright, Calvin & Swidler, Steve, 2023. "Abnormal trading volume, news and market efficiency: Evidence from the Jamaica Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4267-4272, November.
    3. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Are stock markets really efficient? Evidence of the adaptive market hypothesis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 39-49.
    4. Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "How predictable are precious metal returns?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1390-1413, November.
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    6. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Jitka Veselá & Alžběta Zíková, 2022. "Are the Czech, Polish, German and Dutch markets taking a random walk? [Konají český, polský, německý a nizozemský trh náhodnou procházku?]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(2), pages 19-38.
    8. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 369-378.
    9. Abul Shamsuddin & Jae H. Kim, 2010. "Short‐Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 469-484, May.
    10. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "An empirical analysis on the efficiency of the microfinance investment market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2725-2735.
    11. Semei Coronado-Ram'irez & Pedro Celso-Arellano & Omar Rojas, 2014. "Adaptive Market Efficiency of Agricultural Commodity Futures Contracts," Papers 1412.8017, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    12. Aggarwal, Divya, 2019. "Do bitcoins follow a random walk model?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 15-22.
    13. Graham Smith, 2008. "Liquidity And The Informational Efficiency Of African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 161-175, June.
    14. Laura Raisa Miloş & Cornel Haţiegan & Marius Cristian Miloş & Flavia Mirela Barna & Claudiu Boțoc, 2020. "Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of Stock Market Indexes. Empirical Evidence from Seven Central and Eastern European Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    15. Vasile Brătian & Ana-Maria Acu & Camelia Oprean-Stan & Emil Dinga & Gabriela-Mariana Ionescu, 2021. "Efficient or Fractal Market Hypothesis? A Stock Indexes Modelling Using Geometric Brownian Motion and Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-20, November.
    16. Boudt, Kris & Raza, Muhammad Wajid & Wauters, Marjan, 2019. "Evaluating the Shariah-compliance of equity portfolios: The weighting method matters," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 406-417.
    17. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    18. Pernagallo, Giuseppe & Torrisi, Benedetto, 2020. "Blindfolded monkeys or financial analysts: Who is worth your money? New evidence on informational inefficiencies in the U.S. stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    19. Vieito, João Paulo & Wong, Wing-Keung & Chow, Sheung Chi, 2016. "Stock Market Liberalizations and Efficiency: The Case of Latin America," MPRA Paper 68949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:619-:d:1008258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.