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Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics

Author

Listed:
  • Anne M. Hofmeister

    (Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130, USA)

  • James M. Seckler

    (Department of Biomedical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA)

  • Genevieve M. Criss

    (Webster Central School District, Webster, NY 14526, USA)

Abstract

Major pandemics involving respiratory viruses develop semi-regularly and require a large flux of novel viruses, yet their origination is equivocal. This paper explores how natural processes could give rise to this puzzling combination of characteristics. Our model is based on available data regarding the emergence of historic influenzas, early COVID-19 cases and spreading, the microbiome of permafrost, long-distance airborne transport of viruses reaching stratospheric levels, ultraviolet immunosuppression, sunlight variations, weather patterns, Arctic thawing, and global warming. Atmospheric conveyance is supported by hemispheric distribution disparities, ties of COVID-19 cases to air pollution particulate concentrations, and contemporaneous animal infections. The following sequence is proposed: (1) virus emergence after hot Arctic summers, predominantly near solar irradiance maxima or involving wildfires, indicates release of large amounts of ancient viruses during extensive permafrost melting, which are then incorporated in autumn polar air circulation, where cold storage and little sunlight permit survival. (2) Pandemics onset in winter to spring at rather few locations: from climate data on Wuhan, emergence occurs where the North Polar Jet stream hovers while intersecting warmer, moist air, producing rain which deposits particulates with the viral harvest on a vulnerable human population. (3) Spring and summer increases in COVID-19 cases link to high solar irradiance, implicating ultraviolet immune suppression as one means of amplification. (4) Viruses multiplied by infected humans at close range being incorporated in atmospheric circulation explains rapid global spread, periodic case surges (waves), and multi-year durations. Pollution and wind geography affect uptake and re-distribution. Our model can be tested, e.g., against permafrost stored in laboratories as well as Artic air samples, and suggests mitigating actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne M. Hofmeister & James M. Seckler & Genevieve M. Criss, 2021. "Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:6:p:3055-:d:517899
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    1. Hans-Peter Hutter & Michael Poteser & Hanns Moshammer & Kathrin Lemmerer & Monika Mayer & Lisbeth Weitensfelder & Peter Wallner & Michael Kundi, 2020. "Air Pollution Is Associated with COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Vienna, Austria," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "Coronaviruses closely related to the pandemic virus discovered in Japan and Cambodia," Nature, Nature, vol. 588(7836), pages 15-16, December.
    3. Enrico Moretti & Matthew Neidell, 2011. "Pollution, Health, and Avoidance Behavior: Evidence from the Ports of Los Angeles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(1), pages 154-175.
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