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Prediction and Analysis of Tourist Management Strategy Based on the SEIR Model during the COVID-19 Period

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  • Yongdong Shi

    (School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China)

  • Rongsheng Huang

    (School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China)

  • Hanwen Cui

    (School of Computer Science, Zhuhai College of Science and Technology, Zhuhai 519041, China)

Abstract

Tourism destinations are now facing a dilemma choice of controlling the epidemic or developing the economy. This paper takes Macao, a typical international tourist city, as an example to study the strategy of tourist source control during the COVID-19 period. According to the published epidemic data of Macao, this study has established an improved SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model, formulated six control strategies against the current epidemic, and used the model above to simulate the time required for all confirmed cases to recover and discharge under different strategies. By taking into consideration the gross revenue of Macao’s gambling industry from 2017 to 2019, the impact of different strategies on the economy is predicted and three control strategies are found to be feasible. This study shows that an effective way to break through the above dilemma is to design the tourist management strategy by screening the source of passengers and controlling the upper limit of capacity of destination. These findings provide a scientific basis for tourism destinations in formulating public policies. The improved SEIR model is more consistent with the actual conversion rule of patients in the current COVID-19 epidemic, and it can be applied to further public health related research.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongdong Shi & Rongsheng Huang & Hanwen Cui, 2021. "Prediction and Analysis of Tourist Management Strategy Based on the SEIR Model during the COVID-19 Period," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:19:p:10548-:d:651770
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhangbo Yang & Jiahao Zhang & Shanxing Gao & Hui Wang, 2022. "Complex Contact Network of Patients at the Beginning of an Epidemic Outbreak: An Analysis Based on 1218 COVID-19 Cases in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(2), pages 1-17, January.

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