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The Global Interest in Vaccines and Its Prediction and Perspectives in the Era of COVID-19. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska

    (Department of Orthodontics, Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin, Powstańców Wielkopolskich Street 72, 70111 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz

    (Department of Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases and Surveillance, National Institute of Public Health—National Institute of Hygiene, 00791 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Woźniak

    (Department of Orthodontics, Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin, Powstańców Wielkopolskich Street 72, 70111 Szczecin, Poland)

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally overwhelmed all sectors of life. The fast development of vaccines against COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the course of the pandemic. Methods: Global data from Google Trends was analyzed for vaccines against flu, BCG, HPV, pneumococcal disease, polio, and COVID-19. The time frame includes the last five-year period starting from 17 April 2016. Multiple training of time series models with back testing, including Holt–Winters forecasting, Exponential Smoothing State Space, Linear model with trend and seasonal components (tlsm), and ARIMA was conducted. Forecasting according to the best fitting model was performed. Results: Correlation analysis did not reveal a decrease in interest in vaccines during the analyzed period. The prediction models provided a short-term forecast of the dynamics of interest for flu, HPV, pneumococcal and polio vaccines with 5–10% growth in interest for the first quarter of 2022 when compared to the same quarter of 2021. Conclusions: Despite the huge interest in the COVID-19 vaccine, there has not been a detectable decline in the overall interest in the five analyzed vaccines.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska & Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz & Krzysztof Woźniak, 2021. "The Global Interest in Vaccines and Its Prediction and Perspectives in the Era of COVID-19. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:15:p:7841-:d:600533
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joana M. Barros & Ruth Melia & Kady Francis & John Bogue & Mary O’Sullivan & Karen Young & Rebecca A. Bernert & Dietrich Rebholz-Schuhmann & Jim Duggan, 2019. "The Validity of Google Trends Search Volumes for Behavioral Forecasting of National Suicide Rates in Ireland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Magdalena Sycinska-Dziarnowska & Hanna Bielawska-Victorini & Agata Budzyńska & Krzysztof Woźniak, 2021. "The Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Interest in Orthodontic Treatment and Perspectives for the Future. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-9, May.
    3. Arora, Vishal S. & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2019. "Google Trends: Opportunities and limitations in health and health policy research," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 338-341.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zengwang Xu & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Effects of Social Vulnerability and Spatial Accessibility on COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage: A Census-Tract Level Study in Milwaukee County, USA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Magdalena Sycińska-Dziarnowska & Liliana Szyszka-Sommerfeld & Karolina Kłoda & Michele Simeone & Krzysztof Woźniak & Gianrico Spagnuolo, 2021. "Mental Health Interest and Its Prediction during the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Google Trends," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-14, November.

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