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A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth Hunter

    (School of Computer Science, Technological University Dublin, D24 FKT9 Dublin, Ireland)

  • Brian Mac Namee

    (School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, D04 V1W8 Dublin, Ireland)

  • John D. Kelleher

    (ADAPT Research Centre, Technological University Dublin, D24 FKT9 Dublin, Ireland)

Abstract

In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns. The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influences the outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect on whether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centrality of a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policy and intervention strategies such as school closure policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth Hunter & Brian Mac Namee & John D. Kelleher, 2020. "A Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases in a Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:9:p:3119-:d:352264
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elizabeth Hunter & Brian Mac Namee & John Kelleher, 2018. "An open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Matteo Richiardi & Roberto Leombruni & Nicole J. Saam & Michele Sonnessa, 2006. "A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15.
    3. Jill Bigley Dunham, 2005. "An Agent-Based Spatially Explicit Epidemiological Model in MASON," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3.
    4. Elizabeth Hunter & Brian Mac Namee & John D. Kelleher, 2017. "A Taxonomy for Agent-Based Models in Human Infectious Disease Epidemiology," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(3), pages 1-2.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Abdelkader Souissi & Achraf Ammar & Omar Trabelsi & Jordan M. Glenn & Omar Boukhris & Khaled Trabelsi & Bassem Bouaziz & Piotr Zmijewski & Hichem Souissi & Anis Ben Chikha & Tarak Driss & Hamd, 2021. "Distance Motor Learning during the COVID-19 Induced Confinement: Video Feedback with a Pedagogical Activity Improves the Snatch Technique in Young Athletes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-13, March.

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