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Optimal Strategies for Reducing Number of People in the Social Security System

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Yip

    (Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China)

  • Mengni Chen

    (Centre for Demographic Research, Catholic University of Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

  • Bing Kwan So

    (Mathematics Department, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Kwok Fai Lam

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China)

  • Kam Pui Wat

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China)

Abstract

Providing social security to the population in need has become a major expenditure for many governments. Reducing the number of dependents in the social security system and maintaining a dynamic economically active population is a high priority concern for policymakers. A good understanding of the dynamics of the social security system—specifically, who enters and who exits the system—would be helpful for formulating effective interventions. Here, we made use of the data of Hong Kong’s Comprehensive Social Security Assistance (CSSA), which is currently a basic welfare scheme in Hong Kong that provides supplementary payments to households that cannot support themselves financially. We proposed a stochastic model to examine the in- and out- movement in the CSSA scheme and conducted elasticity analyses. The elasticity analyses allowed us to identify the potential target groups of people that would lead to the largest reduction in the number of the CSSA recipients in the system. This analytical method can also reveal whether policies would be more effective in preventing people from entering the CSSA system or helping them leave the CSSA scheme. Our analyses suggest that targeting those aged 30–49 with children would have the largest impact. Additionally, we found that policies that aim to prevent this group from entering the CSSA system would be more effective in reducing the number of CSSA recipients compared with policies that aim to help them exit. In contrast, for the younger age group of 10–29, policies that help them leave CSSA would be more effective than policies that prevent them from entering CSSA. Providing employment for those unemployed in this younger group would be more effective. The results indicate that by tailoring measures to specific subgroups, the overall number of CSSA recipients would be reduced, thereby improving the efficiency of Hong Kong’s social security system, which has accounted for more than 16.5% of Hong Kong government expenditure in 2018, amounting to more than HKD 92 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Yip & Mengni Chen & Bing Kwan So & Kwok Fai Lam & Kam Pui Wat, 2020. "Optimal Strategies for Reducing Number of People in the Social Security System," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:4:p:1305-:d:322034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kee-Lee Chou, 2013. "Familial Effect on Child Poverty in Hong Kong Immigrant Families," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(1), pages 183-195, August.
    2. Kelvin Chi-Kin Cheung & Kee-Lee Chou, 2018. "Child Poverty Among Hong Kong Ethnic Minorities," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 93-112, May.
    3. repec:adr:anecst:y:2014:i:115-116:p:12 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2010. "Comparative analysis of labor market dynamics using Markov processes: An application to informality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 621-631, August.
    5. United Nations, 2016. "The Sustainable Development Goals 2016," Working Papers id:11456, eSocialSciences.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Yip & Mehdi Soleymani & Kam Pui Wat & Edward Pinkney & Kwok Fai Lam, 2020. "Modeling Internal Movement of Children Born in Hong Kong to Nonlocal Mothers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-12, July.
    2. Jinlong Wang & Ling Yang & Min Deng & Gui Zhang & Yaoqi Zhang, 2023. "Selection of optimal regulation scheme by simulating spatial network of ecological-economic-social compound system: a case study of Hunan province, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2831-2856, March.

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