Beyond the Intention: Individual-Level Determinants and Intergenerational Differences of Floating Populations’ Actual Settlement Choices in Dongguan, China

The migration process and patterns of floating populations have received continuing attention from scholars and policymakers. In China, however, studies have been focused on the settlement intention of floating populations based on sampling surveys and yielded inconsistent findings. Drawing upon 18,178,167 authentic individual samples of floating populations in Dongguan city, this study contributes to the literature by examining the effect of individual characteristics on the actual resident actions of floating populations, and revealing both the heterogeneity and continuity of their urban residence among four generations (i.e., during the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s). The results show that the proportion of actual resident actions is lower than that reported by previous studies on settlement intentions, and that male, married, middle-aged, more educated, and long-residing members are more likely to choose to stay in Dongguan. Compared to their predecessors, the 1990 cohort reveals significant heterogeneities in their actual settlement choices. The study draws broad implications from the analysis, calling for the equalization of public welfare in Chinese cities and the encouragement of floating populations to sustain long-term residence in the destination cities.