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Association between Weather Types based on the Spatial Synoptic Classification and All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, 1991–2014

Author

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  • Osvaldo Fonseca-Rodríguez

    (Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
    Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

  • Erling Häggström Lundevaller

    (Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

  • Scott C. Sheridan

    (Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 4242, USA)

  • Barbara Schumann

    (Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
    Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

Abstract

Much is known about the adverse health impact of high and low temperatures. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health because it considers the combined effect of meteorological factors rather than temperature only. The aim of this study was to assess the association between oppressive weather types and daily total mortality in Sweden. Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather (Dry Polar, Dry Tropical, Moist Polar, and Moist Tropical) and daily deaths over 14 days in the extended summer (May to September), and 28 days during the extended winter (November to March), from 1991 to 2014. Days not classified as oppressive weather served as the reference category. We computed relative risks with 95% confidence intervals, adjusting for trends and seasonality. Results of the southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations were pooled using meta-analysis for regional-level estimates. Analyses were performed using the dlnm and mvmeta packages in R. During summer, in the South, the Moist Tropical and Dry Tropical weather types increased the mortality at lag 0 through lag 3 and lag 6, respectively. Moist Polar weather was associated with mortality at longer lags. In the North, Dry Tropical weather increased the mortality at shorter lags. During winter, in the South, Dry Polar and Moist Polar weather increased mortality from lag 6 to lag 10 and from lag 19 to lag 26, respectively. No effect of oppressive weather was found in the North. The effect of oppressive weather types in Sweden varies across seasons and regions. In the North, a small study sample reduces precision of estimates, while in the South, the effect of oppressive weather types is more evident in both seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • Osvaldo Fonseca-Rodríguez & Erling Häggström Lundevaller & Scott C. Sheridan & Barbara Schumann, 2019. "Association between Weather Types based on the Spatial Synoptic Classification and All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, 1991–2014," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-12, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:10:p:1696-:d:231108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joacim Rocklöv & Bertil Forsberg, 2010. "The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    3. Hajat, S. & Sheridan, S.C. & Allen, M.J. & Pascal, M. & Laaidi, K. & Yagouti, A. & Bickis, U. & Tobias, A. & Bourque, D. & Armstrong, B.G. & Kosatsky, T., 2010. "Heat-health warning systems: A comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 100(6), pages 1137-1144.
    4. Christopher R. De Freitas & Elena A. Grigorieva, 2015. "Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, November.
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